mburbank
Jun 4th, 2004, 11:59 AM
Yep, I'm a psychic.
Please note, I am NOT saying he won't win reelection. But Nixon won reelection to, in a land slide, and shortly therefater resigned rather than face impeachement.
In some ways, I think W. would be lucky to loose. If he looses, the Bush dynasty won't be finished. If he looses, there's some cahnce the degree of his perfidy may never be discovered, and his cronies may end up taking all the blame.
But either way, I think the Bush house of cards is in the process of falling, and after thinking about it for a while, I've decided I know what's up with Tenets resignation. This is a rat leaving a sinking ship.
1.) Chalabi, long time pal of the neocons and once the presumed ruler of post Sadaam Iraq has been exposed as a liar, turned against the US and now stands accused of espionage. (He's a british citizen, but I looked it up, he can still be charged with espionage by the US, and if found guilty, the most stringent penalty is death)
2.) If Chalabi did give Iran intelligence about intercepts, someone gave it to him. Now I suppose it could have been some low level spook, but concidering all the highly placed administration mooks Chalabi's palled around with, how likely is that? He was seated directly behind Laura Bush at the stte of the union. They got away with saying W didn't reall know Kenny-boy lay all that well really, but that was back before a whole slew of mistakes. This administrations tefflon is starting to peal.
3.) The investigation of the Pjalme leak has gone gone far enough that W had to consult a private lawyer. This story has been underground for a while now, but I thought it had legs. No administration fully controls the CIA and you can't just go blowing agents covers without retalliation. The main feature of W's gang is arrogance, and I think they've made too many enemies.
4.) Tennet is now a civillian and can say whatever he wants. That doesn't mean he will, but it's got to have some powerful folks worried. It's one thing to say a former Treasury secretary was out of the loop, but it's harder to say that about a guy who directed the CIA for a very long time.
5.) Prisoner abuse. This gets uglier alll the time. So far they've had three soldiers plead guilty without a fight. Think they'll all go that quietly?
6.) Time magazine just released a white house email that strongly implies Chenney had something to do with Haliburton getting those fat no bid contracts in Iraq. No surprise there, but he's denied it all along. This is an investigation waiting to happen.
7.) The supreme court is about to take up the Padilla Case. They will decide if the pres on his sole authority alone has the right to indeffinitely detain a US citizen without charging him and hold him without access to a lawyer. Even this supreme coourt is going to have a hard time swallowing that. If he gets his rights, they'll either have to release him or try him. Releasing him would certainly look bad, and if they try him, none of the evidence they've gathered will be admissible in court. And suppose it truns out that they don't have anything more solid on him than they did on Wen Ho Li or James Yee, and maybe they tortured him a little. Even if they deny it, even if they didn't do it, he can make that case. If this guy gets his rights, no matter how guilty he may be, the state has blown it's case no matter how you slice it.
8.) Sovereignity. What if the new gov asks us to leave? Far more likely, suppose they throw Halliburton out in favor of giving jobs to say, unemployed Iraqis, or at very least, Ilsamic businesses? What will we say in either case?
9.) What will we do in the highly likely event Iraq starts sliding toward civil war? Take sovereignity back?
Bush is up a creek without a paddle, and the creek is made of his own bodily fluids. He may stay ahead of the shit wave long enough to get reelected, but not much longer. There may well be some epublican king makers out there who are already concidering wether it might be better for W to loose now, let Kerry deal with the mess for a term, and run Jeb. It's what I;d do if I was looking at the big picture, and big picture is what your Grover Norquist types are good at.
SCARY FLY IN THE OINTMENT PREDICTION: Should things start to look bad, should some of the Kingmakers start bailing on the administration, I don't expect W. to be as accomodating as Nixon was. Nixon accepted disgrace, accepted fading away. W will never accept he played the game badly. Karl Rove sinks or swims with W. He might, just might survive a W. loss and mke a come bck, but he'll never survive a W meltdown. Chenney won't let go of power unless he's offered a way back in. Same for Rummy.
I'm nowhere near paranoid enough to imagine they'd engineer a fake terrorist attack, or even let one happen. BUT I think they'd exploit real attack and declare martial law. More than that, I think they'd trump up a non existant threat and declare martial law. Chenney and Rumsfeld have been playing officiaal shadow government war games since the reagan administration. I'm not making that up, it's a matter of public record. I haven't forgotten that six month rotating shadow government has existed since a few months after 9/11. gain, no conspiracy theory; official, real policy. I do not think these guys will go gracefully if things fall apart. There are lots of other players out there who would see it coming and try to prevent it, many of them from Bush seniors days, but I would not put martial law out of the picture. These guys are all decended from Strauss, a man who promoted the idea of the 'Noble Lie'. They believe they are right, some of them believe they are in contact with God. I don't think there's much they wouldn't scruple at to do what they think is best for America.
Please note, I am NOT saying he won't win reelection. But Nixon won reelection to, in a land slide, and shortly therefater resigned rather than face impeachement.
In some ways, I think W. would be lucky to loose. If he looses, the Bush dynasty won't be finished. If he looses, there's some cahnce the degree of his perfidy may never be discovered, and his cronies may end up taking all the blame.
But either way, I think the Bush house of cards is in the process of falling, and after thinking about it for a while, I've decided I know what's up with Tenets resignation. This is a rat leaving a sinking ship.
1.) Chalabi, long time pal of the neocons and once the presumed ruler of post Sadaam Iraq has been exposed as a liar, turned against the US and now stands accused of espionage. (He's a british citizen, but I looked it up, he can still be charged with espionage by the US, and if found guilty, the most stringent penalty is death)
2.) If Chalabi did give Iran intelligence about intercepts, someone gave it to him. Now I suppose it could have been some low level spook, but concidering all the highly placed administration mooks Chalabi's palled around with, how likely is that? He was seated directly behind Laura Bush at the stte of the union. They got away with saying W didn't reall know Kenny-boy lay all that well really, but that was back before a whole slew of mistakes. This administrations tefflon is starting to peal.
3.) The investigation of the Pjalme leak has gone gone far enough that W had to consult a private lawyer. This story has been underground for a while now, but I thought it had legs. No administration fully controls the CIA and you can't just go blowing agents covers without retalliation. The main feature of W's gang is arrogance, and I think they've made too many enemies.
4.) Tennet is now a civillian and can say whatever he wants. That doesn't mean he will, but it's got to have some powerful folks worried. It's one thing to say a former Treasury secretary was out of the loop, but it's harder to say that about a guy who directed the CIA for a very long time.
5.) Prisoner abuse. This gets uglier alll the time. So far they've had three soldiers plead guilty without a fight. Think they'll all go that quietly?
6.) Time magazine just released a white house email that strongly implies Chenney had something to do with Haliburton getting those fat no bid contracts in Iraq. No surprise there, but he's denied it all along. This is an investigation waiting to happen.
7.) The supreme court is about to take up the Padilla Case. They will decide if the pres on his sole authority alone has the right to indeffinitely detain a US citizen without charging him and hold him without access to a lawyer. Even this supreme coourt is going to have a hard time swallowing that. If he gets his rights, they'll either have to release him or try him. Releasing him would certainly look bad, and if they try him, none of the evidence they've gathered will be admissible in court. And suppose it truns out that they don't have anything more solid on him than they did on Wen Ho Li or James Yee, and maybe they tortured him a little. Even if they deny it, even if they didn't do it, he can make that case. If this guy gets his rights, no matter how guilty he may be, the state has blown it's case no matter how you slice it.
8.) Sovereignity. What if the new gov asks us to leave? Far more likely, suppose they throw Halliburton out in favor of giving jobs to say, unemployed Iraqis, or at very least, Ilsamic businesses? What will we say in either case?
9.) What will we do in the highly likely event Iraq starts sliding toward civil war? Take sovereignity back?
Bush is up a creek without a paddle, and the creek is made of his own bodily fluids. He may stay ahead of the shit wave long enough to get reelected, but not much longer. There may well be some epublican king makers out there who are already concidering wether it might be better for W to loose now, let Kerry deal with the mess for a term, and run Jeb. It's what I;d do if I was looking at the big picture, and big picture is what your Grover Norquist types are good at.
SCARY FLY IN THE OINTMENT PREDICTION: Should things start to look bad, should some of the Kingmakers start bailing on the administration, I don't expect W. to be as accomodating as Nixon was. Nixon accepted disgrace, accepted fading away. W will never accept he played the game badly. Karl Rove sinks or swims with W. He might, just might survive a W. loss and mke a come bck, but he'll never survive a W meltdown. Chenney won't let go of power unless he's offered a way back in. Same for Rummy.
I'm nowhere near paranoid enough to imagine they'd engineer a fake terrorist attack, or even let one happen. BUT I think they'd exploit real attack and declare martial law. More than that, I think they'd trump up a non existant threat and declare martial law. Chenney and Rumsfeld have been playing officiaal shadow government war games since the reagan administration. I'm not making that up, it's a matter of public record. I haven't forgotten that six month rotating shadow government has existed since a few months after 9/11. gain, no conspiracy theory; official, real policy. I do not think these guys will go gracefully if things fall apart. There are lots of other players out there who would see it coming and try to prevent it, many of them from Bush seniors days, but I would not put martial law out of the picture. These guys are all decended from Strauss, a man who promoted the idea of the 'Noble Lie'. They believe they are right, some of them believe they are in contact with God. I don't think there's much they wouldn't scruple at to do what they think is best for America.