Mccain continues nosedive toward conformity

[mburbank]

There were moments I actually imagined myself being able to vote for Mccain simply beause he seemed so authentic.

From the moment he decided to whole heartedly endorse W after W's campaign dragged him through the mud (Up to an including an incredibly racist flyer claiming his adopted daughter was black, which she isn't, and that there was something ugy about it) it has seemed to me he is attempting to sell his soul to become the next president.

He is set to deliver the commencement address at Jerry Falwells private university.

[KevinTheOmnivore]

McCain wants to be president.

The two things mentioned above play a part in him doing that. He is going to crucial states, meeting with important Bush strategists and fundraisers, and securing them for his team. Showing support for an increasingly unpopular president shows "just how loyal" he is.

And as far as the Falwell thing goes, as unattractive as that is, it doesn't necessarily mean everything. McCain is arguably the most popular politician in America right now, and everybody wants him to speak at their events. Turning Falwell down would hurt him a lot more than simply going to this meaningless event and saying a few words will.

Again, he wants to be president.

[Preechr]

Don't let the campaigning fool you Max. McCain is as good a guy as a politician can be according to a trusted friend that worked for him and still had to work to convince me. I really do think he might be just what this country needs to make it work better, but I don't think that's the immediate goal of either party. I don't think I want that either, but for different reasons.

Don't count him out yet. If you really do vote independently in 08, he might just be your man... maybe. I don't see the Republicans running him, but it might take another 4 years to get him running on his own or for a 3rd party.

[KevinTheOmnivore]

There is no organized group of Republicans who will have the yay or nay on running McCain. By appealing to the base, setting up support structures in certain states, and getting an IOU from a lot of House Republicans who he may help keep in office, he is essentially structuring the party the way he wants it to look.

He's also a media whore, and gets a lot of free press from shows like the Daily Show, who guys like Brownback and Allen couldn't pay to get on.

I think McCain could do well in the South, depending on time and who else decides to run. He's paying lip service to all the right issues, said he'd sign the South Dakota bill, etc.

This (http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/local/articles/0327AZinDC0327.html) is a pretty good article on some of the behind-the-scenes stuff he's doing.

[Preechr]

There is no organized group of Republicans who will have the yay or nay on running McCain.

Ok then. We are all just little corks floating on the sea of Democracy, moving about by farting truth and justice that smells like apple pie, comfortable in the knowledge that political campaigns are run in all our best interests and that everything is gonna work out just fine.

I understand that he's working hard to position himself, but I also understand that the press you say fawn all over him are falling all over themselves to portray him as already elected if a Republican has to win. I am also not quite recovered from reading the goofiest thing I think I've ever seen you write...

[KevinTheOmnivore]

You said farting.

Tell us then Preechr, what cabal of Republicans will meet in their dark tower and decide that McCain can't win it? What group of Republicans is really thinking about THAT right now, rather than protecting their own asses and interests???

The self-fulfilled prophecy thing might work for McCain. McCain is going to run as a fiscally conservative, tough on security Republican. He'll cut your taxes and bomb the third world. When all else fails, if you are a Republican, this is what you do.

There are a lot of factors to take into account before McCain can be crowned. There are some potential candidates, but none who are as viable as mcCain who are also taking all of the same measures he is (Giuliani is pandering to the South and campaigning in primary districts too, but he stands no chance). I think Sen. Allen will become the second most viable challenger, or even a guy like Gov. Huckabee. Brownback is the sleeper.

Either way, I don't think the GOP is united enough right now to actually stifle McCain. He is poll # gold right now, so he is being embraced by everyone. He's going to hold them to that in 2008.

[ziggytrix]

or even a guy like Gov. Huckabee. Brownback is the sleeper.

Dear Jesus, I know I don't talk to You often and some rascals may have even told You I don't even believe in You any more, but please PLEASE let Kevin be talking about some Governor of some state who happens to have the same last name as the current Governor of Arkansas...

[KevinTheOmnivore]

He's a governor, and they do better in presidential races.

He also has policy perspectives (such as this cheesy health kick thing he was on) that offer an alternative to the 5 senators who want to run and say the exact same thing.

I didn't say I like him Ziggy, I just threw out the possibility. :(

[ziggytrix]

He'd make a great candidate for a President that Burbank could hate more than Bush. :(

[Preechr]

You said farting.

Yes, and I stand by my assertion.

Tell us then Preechr, what cabal of Republicans will meet in their dark tower and decide that McCain can't win it?

I'm not saying he can't win. I am saying he won't get to win as a Republican candidate for President, at least I seriously doubt it. What happened in the 99 primaries has no bearing on what might happen next year. All bets are off, and the guy that gets the Republican nomination is gonna be the guy that offers the most to the party, not the guy the party owes the most to.

In that light, McCain may have appeal to voters, but voters don't decide who the Republicans will run. Please explain to me just how the primaries are a democratic process... better yet, explain it to President of the United States Howard Dean. It's a show, not an election. Political parties are run like businesses, not lynch mobs. This is a decision made through a process of focused intelligence with regard to specific goals not necessarily understood by all Republican Party Members. I'm not talking about shadow government, illuminati stuff, but I'm willing to bet the inner circle has a perimeter that stops somewhere before uncle Bob and his buddy Barney chucking back dollar beers at the Republican Party Monthly Mixer over at the Moose Lodge.

Think about it, Kevin... You're a smart guy. Why the hell would the GOP hand the reins over to a man with a solid record of inclusiveness and non-partisanship when the Democrats are on the ropes?

What group of Republicans is really thinking about THAT right now, rather than protecting their own asses and interests???

It's funny... I wrote that last bit, then read this part, and now I have nothing to say. I think I have confused myself or something. I think what's screwing me up is that you seem to think the GOP is weak and vulnerable right now for some reason, where I see it as the Republicans are trying to decide on the best way to finish the execution while leaving the smallest mess to clean up.

Maybe that's a slight overstatement on my part, but there's no doubt in my mind that we are as closer to a one-party system than we've seen since Washington took office. It's their ball game to lose at this point, and I don't know that they are going to screw this up. As I said, it was smart decisions that got them this far, not just dumb luck.

The self-fulfilled prophecy thing might work for McCain. McCain is going to run as a fiscally conservative, tough on security Republican.

..or independent. I know I haven't given you a chance to respond to my latest round of proving you wrong, but self-fulfilled prophecy? This isn't the ending to a chick-flick, Kev... this is politics. Because it sounds good just doesn't factor into who runs our country.

He'll cut your taxes and bomb the third world. When all else fails, if you are a Republican, this is what you do.

But when he doesn't get the nod from his party, what will he do then? How will he run if he runs as an independent? I'd rather see you getting all excited over that prospect than building youself for an obvious disappointment. If he was Governor McCain, we wouldn't be having this argument, but alas he is not, and we are... and I'm right. You watch.

There are a lot of factors to take into account before McCain can be crowned.

Oh I bet you know by now I'm aware of that, don't you?

There are some potential candidates, but none who are as viable as mcCain who are also taking all of the same measures he is (Giuliani is pandering to the South and campaigning in primary districts too, but he stands no chance). I think Sen. Allen will become the second most viable challenger, or even a guy like Gov. Huckabee. Brownback is the sleeper.

Either way, I don't think the GOP is united enough right now to actually stifle McCain. He is poll # gold right now, so he is being embraced by everyone. He's going to hold them to that in 2008.

Polls mean nothing and any Governor can beat any Senator any day. 28 states have Republican governors right now, but Ahnold doesn't count. Want another Texan? Rick Perry might be freed up next year. How about another Bush? Wouldn't that be fun? I doubt Pataki could pull it off, but that's the four largest states in the union all represented by Republican governors right there... remember I said Ahnold can't run so California was implicit.

How bout Bill Owens? There's a success story for you. First Republican governor in Colorado in 28 years, and he got re-elected. Solid background in the private sector, better than Bush on education, infrastructure and taxes... This dude's on FIRE.

Hell, Haley Barbour or even Ernie Fletcher could whup any Senator you've got. Notice please that I'm throwing out names most folks have to look up. That's who you want to run if you're Karl Rove.

McCain's too dangerous, and Republicans aren't desperate enough, as I said before, to be running Senators anyway. I'm not even sure he could get on the ticket in the number two position if he'd even take that.

There's plenty of good meat out there in the herd of Republican governors, but a lot of them are up for re-election this year, so it's premature to make any guesses. It'll be a governor, though. Bank on it.

[KevinTheOmnivore]

In that light, McCain may have appeal to voters, but voters don't decide who the Republicans will run. Please explain to me just how the primaries are a democratic process... better yet, explain it to President of the United States Howard Dean. It's a show, not an election. Political parties are run like businesses, not lynch mobs. This is a decision made through a process of focused intelligence with regard to specific goals not necessarily understood by all Republican Party Members. I'm not talking about shadow government, illuminati stuff, but I'm willing to bet the inner circle has a perimeter that stops somewhere before uncle Bob and his buddy Barney chucking back dollar beers at the Republican Party Monthly Mixer over at the Moose Lodge.

Ask John McCain if primaries matter. Do you honestly think it was "THE REPUBLICAN PARTY" that axed the McCain campaign in 2000, or was it a crafty and twisted campaign staff???

You either don't see the weakened role the actual party structures have had in politics for the last 20-30 years, or simply refuse to.

Why the hell would the GOP hand the reins over to a man with a solid record of inclusiveness and non-partisanship when the Democrats are on the ropes?

Wow, you've really bought into the John McCain fan club, haven't you?

The guy is a war hawk who wants to balance the budget. He gained recognition for his bi-partisan efforts, particularly the campaign finance reform. But the guy has otherwise voted as a Republican. Check out his interest group rating for his legislative record:

http://www.vote-smart.org/issue_rating_category.php?can_id=S0061103

* Fall 2004 Senator McCain supported the interests of the Conservative Index - The John Birch Society 90 percent in Fall 2004.

* 2004 Senator McCain supported the interests of the Christian Coalition 83 percent in 2004.

* 2004 On the votes that the Americans for Tax Reform considered to be the most important in 2004, Senator McCain voted their preferred position 90 percent of the time.

* 2005 Senator McCain supported the interests of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce 72 percent in 2005.

* 2003-2004 Senator McCain supported the interests of the American Civil Liberties Union 22 percent in 2003-2004.


I like McCain, but the "independent" McCain has partly been a product of smart messaging and a friendly media.


I think what's screwing me up is that you seem to think the GOP is weak and vulnerable right now for some reason, where I see it as the Republicans are trying to decide on the best way to finish the execution while leaving the smallest mess to clean up.

The GOP is weak right now. People are down n the government, and the party in power is the likely target. If you don't believe me, ask your man Newt. He knows it too.


..or independent. I know I haven't given you a chance to respond to my latest round of proving you wrong, but self-fulfilled prophecy? This isn't the ending to a chick-flick, Kev... this is politics. Because it sounds good just doesn't factor into who runs our country.

Ugh, excuse me, but who has swallowed the "straight talk" kool aid here?

What i meant is that McCain has been picked by many,including press, pollsters, and pundits to be the frontrunner for the nomination....right now. My point was that this can play in McCain's favor, because the more people say it, and the more th press covers it, the less likely it is that he'll get strong opposition for the nod.

And besides, according to you, it's some nefarious backroom dea that decides all of this. If voter don't really matter, than doesn't that play in the favor of the "independent" who is everyone's darling...?


But when he doesn't get the nod from his party, what will he do then? How will he run if he runs as an independent? I'd rather see you getting all excited over that prospect than building youself for an obvious disappointment. If he was Governor McCain, we wouldn't be having this argument, but alas he is not, and we are... and I'm right. You watch.

Who gives this nod, preechr? What party?? The RNC? The GOP governors association? Republicans in Congress? Wealthy Republicans?

You are absolutely off on this one, sorry Preechr. I'm not excited about the prospects of anything. I know what I see happening, and I see McCain positioning himself to be the srongest candidate-- both inmessage, legislative record, staff, and grassroots organization.

Not only have you failed to explain who these "Republicans" are who are out to get McCain, but you've failed to explain why these shady characters would be opposed to McCain as the candidate.



Polls mean nothing and any Governor can beat any Senator any day. 28 states have Republican governors right now, but Ahnold doesn't count. Want another Texan? Rick Perry might be freed up next year. How about another Bush? Wouldn't that be fun? I doubt Pataki could pull it off, but that's the four largest states in the union all represented by Republican governors right there... remember I said Ahnold can't run so California was implicit.

Polls mean enough to all of the Republican candidates who want or have McCain stumping for them in 2006.

I already said senators have a tough time. However, that's generally because they have a long record of legislation to answer for. McCain flaunts and embraces his record, which adds to his "straight talk" persona. McCain came out of a losing primary battle more popular than when he entered. Find a Democrat who could brag about the same.

McCain, in short, has done a good job over the lasy eight years to step beyond his senate position.


How bout Bill Owens? There's a success story for you. First Republican governor in Colorado in 28 years, and he got re-elected. Solid background in the private sector, better than Bush on education, infrastructure and taxes... This dude's on FIRE.

I'm glad you like him. I'm sure a lot of folks who voted for him would agree. McCain would kick his ass today.

Hell, Haley Barbour or even Ernie Fletcher could whup any Senator you've got. Notice please that I'm throwing out names most folks have to look up. That's who you want to run if you're Karl Rove.

See above. As I've already said, it's still early, but McCan may b the exception to the rule. He would beat these gentlemen today, IMO.


McCain's too dangerous, and Republicans aren't desperate enough, as I said before, to be running Senators anyway. I'm not even sure he could get on the ticket in the number two position if he'd even take that.

Good grief. Preechr, what are the issues McCain is too dangerous on? Security? Taxes? Abortion?

And your last comment about him struggling to get a VP slot (were he to accept it) is the sillies thing you've ever said.....EVER!


There's plenty of good meat out there in the herd of Republican governors, but a lot of them are up for re-election this year, so it's premature to make any guesses. It'll be a governor, though. Bank on it.

You may beright, but to dismiss the possibility of a popular senator is silly.

[mburbank]

"McCain wants to be president. "

Yeah, Faust wanted something to, I forget exactly what.

[KevinTheOmnivore]

The way John McCain gets back at George W. Bush is by "saving" the party, and being a better president than Bush.

I will put a wager on this-- If the Republicans lose the House in the fall (which a part of McCain must almost want to see), look for McCain's language to become a little bit more "mavericky". He will offer himself up as a "fresh" kind of Republican with different ideas, one who will help the party atone for its losses.

[mburbank]

I agree that this is the plan for getting back at Bush and becoming President. It's not a bad one, either. But it has all the earmarks of classical tragedy.

Hero makes apparent major personal ethical alterations. Hero brings people into tent to piss out, so they won't piss in. Hero, now surrounded by pissers becomes slowly divorced from who he truly is. Hero comes to rue what his voctory has cost him, but it's too late.

I undrstand what he's doing, but it's a hell of a tightrope.

Also, his appeal to me, since politically I can't agree with him, is his seeming honesty. That's what makes him a person I feel that as a President I would not agree with, but could respect. If he sacrafices that for respectability with the Falwell crowd (and who after that, the Norquist crowd, the Bush dynasty?) ... Well, it's not like I'd vote for him anyway. But I think he counts on the Reagan Democrats. And ore than that, I honestly feel like he's brutally crushing a fundamental part of who he is. He' s chosen party loyalty over what he knows to be true and the possability for victory over honesty.

[KevinTheOmnivore]

Just to add to my previous point:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2006/03/the_beginning_of_the_demonizat.html

"McCain has been such a public figure since his presidential run in 2000 most Americans only know him from his public persona the last six years and his Vietnam POW history almost 40 years ago. His 18-year solidly conservative record in Congress from 1982-2000 was conveniently overlooked by fawning members of the media and is thus not part of the public's current impression of John McCain."

The article also mentions that www.voteview.com ranks him as the third most conservative member of the senate.

[ziggytrix]

Yeah, but that's a traditionally conservative ranking, not a neoconservative one, and I think that's an important distinction. McCain is supposedly old school conservative like the Republicans from way back when most of us were little kids. They may all be asshole Republicans as far as any left-winger is concerned, but moderates like small government, fiscal conservatives better than brash neocons, I think.

The question on my mind is whether McCain is gonna have to suck up to the neoconservative wing of the Republican party or if neoconservatism is at the end of its run.

[KevinTheOmnivore]

"Neo-conservatives" aren't a very large pool of voters. They live in think-tanks, universities, the media, and the White House. They're also the latest Lefty boogey man, but I digress...

When you get solid reviews from Tax reformers, the Birch Society, and the Christian Coalition, you're in a good place with the base. (The Birchers don't necessarily speak for a large constituency either, but they gave him a friggin 90%)

I think the position McCain holds is consistent with whatever desires these neo-cons have. He wants to stay in Iraq, heck, he wants to up troop levels last I heard. He thinks nukes belong on the table while discussing Iran. The guy is a hawk, and he wants to protect the homeland. I think the Bill Kristols of the world will be fine with that.

[ziggytrix]

They're also the latest Lefty boogey man, but I digress...

How dismissive of you. Neoconservatism isn't some media invention.

Foreign and domestic policy is tremendously influenced by the political bent of a President. The same person who voted for Nixon may have voted for Regan, both Bushes, and may vote for McCain.

But that hardly means Nixon=Bush=McCain.

I don't imagine a McCain budget would look anything like, say, a Cheney budget.

[KevinTheOmnivore]

I didn't say neo-cons don't exist, I'm saying the current image they have (Geggy: "OMGS, THE NEO-CONS DRAFTED A PLAN TO BLO W UP THA WORLD!") is a bit of a fabrication.

McCain will want to spend just as much on the war as Cheney or Bush, but he'll look to cut domestic spending in the process. Unlike President Bush, he will use his veto pen.

[Preechr]

Why must you make me constantly repeat myself?

*sigh*

Sometimes it's like I'm talking into a rain-barrel, or to my hound dog... or to kahljorn.

I will hit the bullet points for you, in hopes that I might jog your memory:

Grover Norquist's comment, though reflective of previous Republican STRATEGY, is no longer the goal. A cursory glance at the Bush presidency proves that.

Since the Reagan years, the strategy for Republican dominance has evolved into one of growing government in order to speed up the demise of Democrat socialist programs, eg: the world's biggest new entitlement program that nobody wanted and that just bleeds money: The Medicare Rx Plan.

Dammit... I can't do this quickly or concisely... Why must you so easily accept such obvious contradictions into your arguments?

You make this incredibly difficult sometimes, and I'm very tired, so please excuse my bitchiness. Help me help you. I want you to get this. Really, I do. I left for work at 530 this morning, and I just got home at 930... then I sat down here. For you.

Instead of hinging your argument on my revealing the members of a secret cabal of evil Republicans (that you and I both know do not exist) how bout considering for a moment that Republican politicians all carry certain individual amounts of power at any point. I should not be being forced to spell this out for you. That power comes from many places... guys like DeLay add weight to their opinions because they are serious cash cows. Guys like Frist are listened to because of his position in the party.

It's not a Skull and Bones meeting, and you know that's not what I'm saying... so why must you muddy the waters? I'm trying to discuss this, and you're flinging crap.

One second you say McCain's painted as more bi-partisan than he really is because the media loves him, but the next you say he's a viable candidate because the media says so...

I ask you to explain to me how primaries are a Democratic process, and you come back asking why I don't think votes count for nothing, as if the actual elections are rigged...

You know how primaries are decided. You know that so much influence is exerted during those state by state dog and pony shows by EVERYONE that has any sort of stake in the game that the primaries are just big pep-rallies used by the parties to warm the electorate up for the real elections. Primaries are NOT part of the electoral process. The voting IN THE PRIMARIES is for show.

That does not mean that secret groups of half-devils are cronying it up right now, deciding for their own twisted reasons who is gonna get to run in 08. Nobody's hulking over a cauldron, and there's nothing under your bed but that Newsweek and that sad little pile of tissue.

During the circus in 99, Bush's team could have been punished by the party for their actions toward McCain, but they weren't. That lack of support was a sign of greater support among the party for Bush. That's the simplest example I can give you. It's politics.

Notice, please: I am leaving my characteristic barbs out of this in hopes you'll be less spewey with your response. I was only trying to explain something to you, but colorfully. I didn't mean to get you all fired up, making you resort to such extreme flailings of non-logic.

Wait... maybe that was a barb... sorry...

Well, I guess that part about the tissue was also... well, sorry again...

Moving on... The "Neo-Con Agenda," remember, stems from the realizations afforded traditional LIBERALS that had been "mugged by reality." Socialism does not actually help those it was thought to help... it only hurts them more. Neo-Cons switched sides because they liberaled themselves conservative. They decided to teach that guy to fish instead of catching fish for him. They are still classically liberal in that their motivations are to help the little guy, but their methods have changed.

Traditional Republicans also had a realization. By fighting the Democrats tooth and nail over every little detail of their socialist projects and insisting on limitations every step of the way, they were only keeping those projects alive longer than if they had just welcomed the bad ideas and let them die off naturally. Had it not been for Republicans trying so hard to kill it, we wouldn't be looking at another 50 years of Social Security gasping out it's dying breaths.

Competition, if you recall, makes things stronger. Had they let the Democrats have their way with the Welfare State they were building, it would have already failed utterly and there would be nothing left to fight against.

Republicans have launched a two pronged attack that has proven to be wildly successful. First, they inserted the phrase "tax-relief" into the American lexicon, and have been able to hack and slash more and more citizens off the tax roles every year since with tax cuts and by supporting nonsense like EIC credits. Second, they have become adept at both spending the pork before the Democrats can get their hands on it, while simultaneously directing what money is being spent on social programs into the most inefficient areas.

We went from "Just Say No" to the "War on Drugs." Nancy Reagan's idea was FREE, where the Drug War accomplishes less while sucking money out of the budget to such a degree that it's true cost is now a well-hidden secret. Remember when the Republicans were rallying behind the idea of closing the doors on the Department of Education? Right after that was when they switched gears, and now you can't close the doors on that building for the mounds of cash piled on the threshold and our kids are dumber than ever.

Instead of shrinking government to the size it could be drowned in a bathtub, they are attempting to explode it. People don't vote against something that might not fall apart for another 50 years, so they are speeding up the death process. People will vote for conservative solutions only after the socialist programs have failed.

This is so off topic now... We should continue this in Ms. Mod's "I hate politics" thread or something.

Anyhoo, the Republican plan is working. Apply what I'm saying to the seeming inconsistancies apparent in the Bush Administration's domestic decisions, and it really does all make sudden sense, doesn't it? Party platform statements are meaningless in the short game. No vetos and all the pork... Madicare Rx... Hell, even Bush's guest worker program, though too liberal looking to easily pass muster with Republican voters, is designed to kill free healthcare availability in hospitals and pretty much every other welfare-type program we have still struggling along in this country. It all fits with the plan, man...

It's not evil, it's just effective political strategy. As a libertarian, I fully support it. The thing I am most scared of is that I see a lot of Republicans that are becoming a bit too drunk on spending, and I worry that they might stop short of the plan's completion. I have stated previously that we are headed into a Tory style government re-labeled "compassionate conservatism." That's why I've said the Republicans are becoming Democrats and the Democrats are becoming Communists. Everything is shifting to the left.

McCain is not on the Republican bandwagon. He has rejected the plans tactics and is resolutely... as you have pointed out, linked and hammered home... continued to vote in line with the platform.

Please tell me this is making sense to you.

Republicans run Governors, not Senators. They will eventually run a Governor, not McCain.

McCain is a 1970's Republican, and the party has moved on. They will not run him for President because he does not support their long-term plan for returning conservative principles to American government by abandoning them completely in the short-term.

McCain is a popular guy because the left understands his traditional methods represent their last hope in light of the current WiLdLy SUCCESSFUL Republican strategy, and he is doing a great job of positioning himself as a lead candidate. He is starting WAY too early, which is obviously because he needs to. He knows the GOP can't start nailing down their list of possibles until after the mid-term elections because he knows they will pick among Governors.

That being said, I am not implying that McCain has evil in his heart. He believes in conservative principles and he will ive and die by his beliefs. I respect him for that. He has integrity, and the world of politics is sorely lacking in that. I wish him well in his failure, and I hope the Republicans can avoid steering the ship into those big-ass, mean looking rocks just ahead.

Just in case you missed it when I said it RIGHT UP THERE: There is a very good reason McCain is such a darling of the portion of the media that's biased to the left. That reason is that were he to take a lead role in the GOP, the current Republican final solution plan will fail and everything will go back to normal for the Democrats... at least that is the hope. He is not the only Republican politician that is sticking to his guns, but 1999 brought him into the spotlight and he's really good at staying there.

Look at your lists and your stats, but also look at the larger picture. This is not what anybody would have expected a Republican run government to look like, is it? The massive contradictions you see between the GOP platform and the results of the past 5 years should not be ignored because they are proof that I am right.

It's very hard to ignore the effects of the WOT in interpreting what's happening, and I will admit to a crazy time when I considered that the war might actually have been cooked up in an effort to waste money... but reason and my belief in the inherent goodness of men prevailed and I paddled my logic canoe back toward more peaceful water.

The common perception is that the Bush Administratin has done Ok on the WOT to the detriment of domestic policy, but I believe "the plan" is Bush's domestic policy, and I think his administration's done an amazing job of being successful on both ends. I am not even halfway tempted to vote Republican, as I am also a man of principle, but I can smile when I throw my vote away in an "enemy of my enemy is my friend" sort of way.

I am going to go to bed now, but first I am gonna pray that I don't have to rephrase this to you another 20 times before either you get it or I give up entirely.

Did I mention that I'm also sick? I have been sick for two weeks, and I've been working like a dog, traveling my ass off, buring my candles at both ends and in the middle, but STILL I stay up till midnight re-typing my previously explained postions to you in yet another of many, many efforts to explain to you, my dear friend, how politics works. I am obviously supremely dedicated to this cause.

See, I live in the Confederacy and you live in the Nation's Capital, you are a Democrat and I am... well, an economic conservative anyway... yet somehow I (the Redneck) am the one that is able to conjure up the NUANCED bigger picture where you (the Yankee) seem to struggle to advance your political views much past the drivel one might expect to discover in any given Tuesday's USA Today Lifestyle section...

Why do you think that is?

Better question: If you are only going to use these powers for the forces of evil, why am I working so hard to tutor you in the ways of the world?

Maybe it's just too much NyQuil...

Nighty night, Kevvy Wevvy.

[KevinTheOmnivore]

You didn't really say much, but I'll respond to it later....

[mburbank]

Preech, when you do bullet points could you do less typing? My poor old eyes hurt. Plus I can't understand as much things as I used to do.

[KevinTheOmnivore]

Okay, time to wade through!


Instead of hinging your argument on my revealing the members of a secret cabal of evil Republicans (that you and I both know do not exist) how bout considering for a moment that Republican politicians all carry certain individual amounts of power at any point. I should not be being forced to spell this out for you.....That power comes from many places... guys like DeLay add weight to their opinions because they are serious cash cows. Guys like Frist are listened to because of his position in the party.

Great point. You're right, elected politicians do carry clout. Rather than wasting my time and listing it out for you, let's work with the names you provided.

DeLay, Frist, and let's even throw President Bush's name in there. Out of the three, which one will be making appearances, speaking in GOP districts, and raising money for Republicans more than John McCain?? Who have long-shot candidates in spots like Seattle invited? Who did Gov. Schwarzenegger call to help raise $2.5 million? Who is Rep. Wilson running in her Ads. to help her in her tough fight in NM-1???

When Republicans are in trouble, and need to stress their "independence" they call John McCain. When they want to raise money, they call John McCain. Guys like DeLay could raise their fair share, but old Tommy has been distracted lately. Neither of the gentlemen you mentioned (not even the president for good measure) draws the kind of water that Sen. McCain does.


It's not a Skull and Bones meeting, and you know that's not what I'm saying... so why must you muddy the waters? I'm trying to discuss this, and you're flinging crap.

You keep implying that some group of Republicans will eventually "make the call" on McCain, which will crush his state-by-state infrastructure, force the resignation of top Bush consultants and fundraisers from his team, kill his popularity, and annoint some TBD governor as the likely candidate.

I'd like a little bit more substance than that, sorry.

One second you say McCain's painted as more bi-partisan than he really is because the media loves him, but the next you say he's a viable candidate because the media says so...

Politics is about saying the same thing right, and saying it a million times. That's messaging, that's Tony Schwartz's responsive chord. Remember, I'm drawn to this for twisted personal reasons, I know!

Other GOP candidates, say Romney, Allen, Newt, Rudy, or a TBD governor will enter the race with an instant disadvantage. McCain gets a LOT of unearned media, the kind of media guys like them will have to budget for and spend for. That's a calculation that's made when you run for office. Thus, good candidates might decide to sit it out now, and wait 4-8 years. This happens all of the time, and that's what I meant by the media advantage McCain has.


You know how primaries are decided. You know that so much influence is exerted during those state by state dog and pony shows by EVERYONE that has any sort of stake in the game that the primaries are just big pep-rallies used by the parties to warm the electorate up for the real elections. Primaries are NOT part of the electoral process. The voting IN THE PRIMARIES is for show.

They draw people who are guaranteed to vote on election day. They draw party loyalists. They draw die-hard supporeters of the candidates. They generally draw people, statistically anyway, who are more informed on the issues, more informed on the candidates, and more likely to vote every year.

That's ok by me. Let the folks who stay home watch American Idol and allow the people who care to decide. God bless America.


During the circus in 99, Bush's team could have been punished by the party for their actions toward McCain, but they weren't. That lack of support was a sign of greater support among the party for Bush. That's the simplest example I can give you. It's politics.

They were in the middle of what went down as one of the closest and most contentious presidential elections in our nation's history. I guarantee you there WERE people who wanted to burn Bush for it, but to do so would only hurt him, and yes, the GOP was more concerned with the supposed greater good of taking back the White House (eight years of the great satan Clinton, remember?). Once Bush won, he was the president. Even McCain kept quiet about it. Do you think he did it because he's so humble and likes Bush? Come on....it's politics!


Instead of shrinking government to the size it could be drowned in a bathtub, they are attempting to explode it. People don't vote against something that might not fall apart for another 50 years, so they are speeding up the death process. People will vote for conservative solutions only after the socialist programs have failed.

While your illuminati theory may very well be true, it won't matter much in elections. It doesn't matter when a lot of these Republicans may lose their seats.

McCain will run as a tax cutting fiscal conservative. Let's not get into what he'll actually have to do once he's president, because that rarely has to do with elections. McCain will bend to the power your welfare state just like everyone else does, you'll see.

Don't worry, the plan is still safe, my lord!


McCain is not on the Republican bandwagon. He has rejected the plans tactics and is resolutely... as you have pointed out, linked and hammered home... continued to vote in line with the platform.

The platform is pretty appealing to the base, and as it turns out, plays kind of well with the general public. McCain will lose his liberal appeal, partly b/c the Left is now realizing the monster they've made. McCain will cleverly let the media do his base work for him.....


Republicans run Governors, not Senators. They will eventually run a Governor, not McCain.

AND WHICH MEMBERS OF THE KNOW-NOTHING PARTY WILL MAKE THIS DECISION, SIR!!?


McCain is a 1970's Republican, and the party has moved on. They will not run him for President because he does not support their long-term plan for returning conservative principles to American government by abandoning them completely in the short-term.

This plan can't be stated publicly. Nobody who walks around with an American flag and their "I'm a conservative!" badge would agree to this. So, Republicans are still forced to run like McCain and govern like Bush. Bottom Line.

So, since the message will STILL have to be based around tough security, fiscal responsibility, and (maybe) some Christianly stuff, then it would HAVE to be a backroom, nefarious deal that undercuts McCain....something the American voters are unaware of.

So I ask you again....who makes this decision???

btw, parties go through realignments. Ideologies change. I'm sure you know this, but you seem to think that just because a couple of Republicans think one way it'll stay that way indefinitely.


McCain is a popular guy because the left understands his traditional methods represent their last hope in light of the current WiLdLy SUCCESSFUL Republican strategy, and he is doing a great job of positioning himself as a lead candidate. He is starting WAY too early, which is obviously because he needs to. He knows the GOP can't start nailing down their list of possibles until after the mid-term elections because he knows they will pick among Governors.

Good grief. You give the Democrats far more credit than any Democrat ever would.

Okay, so let's ctach up here. There are now TWO nefarious conspiracies in Washington, each being kept very secret and maintained by the party committees, the members of Congress, and the state parties. The Republicans talk about conservatism but really want liberalism, and the Democrats talk about moderate conservatism because they really don't want liberalism because they know it'll result in liberalism which will ultimately result in super conservatism.

Preech, you should go talk to some folks at the DNC. Go out to the bar with them. If such a complcit plan truly exists, they are totally unaware of it.


Just in case you missed it when I said it RIGHT UP THERE: There is a very good reason McCain is such a darling of the portion of the media that's biased to the left. That reason is that were he to take a lead role in the GOP, the current Republican final solution plan will fail and everything will go back to normal for the Democrats... at least that is the hope. He is not the only Republican politician that is sticking to his guns, but 1999 brought him into the spotlight and he's really good at staying there.

Good grief. Preechr. I mean, good God.

Preech, McCain is popular with the media b/c he wasn't Bush, he addressed popular issues with the Left like campaign finance reform, and through VERY VERY good messaging and campaigning he established himself as an "independent". It is NOT because the Left is on o the secret plot of the Republican Masons.....


Look at your lists and your stats, but also look at the larger picture. This is not what anybody would have expected a Republican run government to look like, is it? The massive contradictions you see between the GOP platform and the results of the past 5 years should not be ignored because they are proof that I am right.

No, they are proof that you have no idea what people want, or how what they say and want can conflict.

People talk a good game, but they like their entitlements. Elected officials learn this the hard ay, and thus get burned! Every official wants to bring back to their district, and if everyone is doing this, the spending goes wild!

I hope you feel better. I mean the cold, and, uh, the "other" stuff too.

[Preechr]

Maybe if you'd read more than every other paragraph I waste on you, your comprehension would be higher.

Maybe you are just intentionally misunderstanding what I'm saying, but I'm starting to doubt that.

You eventually did grasp the Republican strategy I was trying to outline, but that's about it.

The first section of your response was from outer space. You quoted a part of me trying to explain to you that instead of a coven of evil Republicans making illuminati-like decisions in back rooms that all Republican politicians use whatever power and sway they can bring to bear in order to fashion a communal decision.

I feel I made that very clear, and yet you insist on ignoring what I'm saying, preferring instead to play with your strawmen.

So, in the world of your silly little argument, the only option to McCain being a guaranteed nominee is that the world is run by a group of evil Republicans that I refuse to name for you. Any other explanation that I try to provide for you seems to get mutated into that, so why bother again?

Tell you what: try reading what I wrote all the way through, slowly, THEN responding.

"DeLay, Frist, and let's even throw President Bush's name in there. Out of the three, which one will be making appearances, speaking in GOP districts, and raising money for Republicans more than John McCain?? Who have long-shot candidates in spots like Seattle invited? Who did Gov. Schwarzenegger call to help raise $2.5 million? Who is Rep. Wilson running in her Ads. to help her in her tough fight in NM-1???"

This was your response? I wasn't talking about McCain. I wasn't comparing the men I mentioned to him. I was explaining groupthink to you, and you seem to have the attention span of an autistic hummingbird on fire, so you run right off into some other subject.

I have acknowledged McCain's efforts to position himself. How is your statement here appropriate or on topic? You are the mod here, aren't you supposed to know how to discuss things?

"When Republicans are in trouble, and need to stress their "independence" they call John McCain. When they want to raise money, they call John McCain. Guys like DeLay could raise their fair share, but old Tommy has been distracted lately. Neither of the gentlemen you mentioned (not even the president for good measure) draws the kind of water that Sen. McCain does. "

Again, so? I was giving you easy to understand examples of powerful men that help to make decisions for the party. I didn't mention McCain, but wasn't it obvious that he is also a Republican, and for the reasons you mentioned he also has power in the party? Yes, Bush is also a party member and he also has power.

Thanks for helping me by providing a few more examples. Now I understand that you can grasp my point, so why don't you try?

"You keep implying that some group of Republicans will eventually "make the call" on McCain, which will crush his state-by-state infrastructure, force the resignation of top Bush consultants and fundraisers from his team, kill his popularity, and annoint some TBD governor as the likely candidate.

I'd like a little bit more substance than that, sorry."

I'm not implying anything, Kevin. I tried my level best to methodically explain to you that McCain is not inline with the party's current strategic direction, and I explained to you what that direction is. I am not arguing with you that McCain is a good Republican. I am not saying he's bad, just that his preferred strategy is not the same as that of the larger party at this time.

Why the fuck is this so hard to grasp for you? If you get it, but just disagree, then by all means say so so I can quit rephrasing the same things over and over to you.

You can have a differnet opinion of the future than I have and vis a vis. It's seems that you are trying to get me to prove concretely who will win the SuperBowl next year, and I can't do that any better than you or anyone else.

"Other GOP candidates, say Romney, Allen, Newt, Rudy, or a TBD governor will enter the race with an instant disadvantage. McCain gets a LOT of unearned media, the kind of media guys like them will have to budget for and spend for. That's a calculation that's made when you run for office. Thus, good candidates might decide to sit it out now, and wait 4-8 years. This happens all of the time, and that's what I meant by the media advantage McCain has."

If that was the only advantage a potential candidate could have, I'd agree with your projections, but it's not. If it were, Dean would have been running against Bush in 04. What I am trying to explain to you is that McCain's media advantage, though considerable, does not guarantee him a spot on the ticket. Yes, the base likes him well enough, but if the party doesn't agree with his strategic view, he might as well try to use his media advantage to get the nomination from the Democratic Party.

"They draw people who are guaranteed to vote on election day. They draw party loyalists. They draw die-hard supporeters of the candidates. They generally draw people, statistically anyway, who are more informed on the issues, more informed on the candidates, and more likely to vote every year.

That's ok by me. Let the folks who stay home watch American Idol and allow the people who care to decide. God bless America."

Again, how is that in any way relevant to the comment to which you were responding? I wasn't even talking about who votes in primaries. I was talking about why the primary voting is not the same thing as the actual voting in the elections.

They do not tally all the votes and nominate the winner. Basically, whichever candidate puts on the best show wins. They have to prove their skills at influencing and manipulating the media, the pollsters, the voters, the voting blocks, the state reps, the lobbies, the pacs, the Governors, each other, the legislature and it's members... EVERYBODY. The individual candidates do not bring their own message into the fray, they are presenting the message of their party.

Now, while McCain's message will resonate with the Republican base, his methods do not jibe with the methods the party has been employing successfully so recently. Why would the other also powerful and influential members of the party accept his leadership if it does not match their current direction?

Again, if you disagree with me on their direction (the plan) then kindly explain to me what you believe their strategic vision to be? You seem to think it's all just random reactions to random events. Maybe the Republican politicians just forgot what they were supposed to be voting for and against. Maybe they were just kidding or high when they wrote out the platform. Oh, wait.. Maybe their just corrupt! Yeah! That must be it.

I say their actions can be explained logically, and that logic leads to a cohesive plan of attack against the Democratic Party that is working. This is not the only obvious strategery the Bush Administration has employed, but it is the one we are discussing.

"They were in the middle of what went down as one of the closest and most contentious presidential elections in our nation's history. I guarantee you there WERE people who wanted to burn Bush for it, but to do so would only hurt him, and yes, the GOP was more concerned with the supposed greater good of taking back the White House (eight years of the great satan Clinton, remember?). Once Bush won, he was the president. Even McCain kept quiet about it. Do you think he did it because he's so humble and likes Bush? Come on....it's politics!"

No, he decided to wait for his turn to come back around. He has continued to vote on his principles, but if you ever listen to the conservative talk shows or read the GOP biased opinion pieces about McCain, he is considered a spoiler rather than a leader of the party.

Please note, as well, you just said that the GOP favored Bush in order to regain the White House. Is this where I'm supposed to start harangueing you to give me the names of the supposed black robes cultists that made this evil decision while scrying through their unholy crystals in their hollowed out volcano?

"McCain will bend to the power your welfare state just like everyone else does, you'll see."

I said he will fight it using traditional Republican methods, not that he would bend to it. The GOP has adopted new methods with which McCain disagrees.

I also said that the plan is not evil. It is just strategy.

"McCain will run as a tax cutting fiscal conservative. Let's not get into what he'll actually have to do once he's president, because that rarely has to do with elections."

Wow. I didn't realize he'd already run and won.

"The platform is pretty appealing to the base, and as it turns out, plays kind of well with the general public. McCain will lose his liberal appeal, partly b/c the Left is now realizing the monster they've made. McCain will cleverly let the media do his base work for him..."

Ok, well at least now you're trying to play along. I understand your admiration for McCain. I disagree with you on your projections, as I have explained in detail, but I'm willing to let you be proven wrong.

"This plan can't be stated publicly. Nobody who walks around with an American flag and their "I'm a conservative!" badge would agree to this. So, Republicans are still forced to run like McCain and govern like Bush. Bottom Line."

But McCain, as you so astutely pointed out, has a voting record that is staunchly conservative unlike Bush's executive record or the result's produced by the larger Republican run government.

A McCain Administration would be much different than Bush's, though Max would still hate him. I really do respect the guy for his integrity, and I really do think that would shine through in his presidency. I just don't think he's going to get the chance because his party won't support him.

"So, since the message will STILL have to be based around tough security, fiscal responsibility, and (maybe) some Christianly stuff, then it would HAVE to be a backroom, nefarious deal that undercuts McCain....something the American voters are unaware of.

So I ask you again....who makes this decision???

btw, parties go through realignments. Ideologies change. I'm sure you know this, but you seem to think that just because a couple of Republicans think one way it'll stay that way indefinitely."

McCain is not bullet-proof, and without the full support of his party, he can be taken out just like any other politician. Just like he was in 99, or just like guys like Rove and Carville have done to sooo many other generally decent guys.

If he is thrown under the bus, no matter who he has allied with, nobody is going to jump in after him. He has probably prepared himself well for the upcoming smear tactics and other BS he'll have to face from both parties, but he will definitely have to face it.

Maybe you are right. Maybe the GOP will rally around him and everything will go off without a hitch. I don't see why you are so hung up on him, honestly. It's obvious by now that I see it as just as much a no-brainer in the other direction, but thanks for forcing me to go into such detail as to why.

I'd ask you to do the same for your position, but I already did and all I got was more of the same questions about the evil centaurs.

"Good grief. You give the Democrats far more credit than any Democrat ever would.

Okay, so let's ctach up here. There are now TWO nefarious conspiracies in Washington, each being kept very secret and maintained by the party committees, the members of Congress, and the state parties. The Republicans talk about conservatism but really want liberalism, and the Democrats talk about moderate conservatism because they really don't want liberalism because they know it'll result in liberalism which will ultimately result in super conservatism.

Preech, you should go talk to some folks at the DNC. Go out to the bar with them. If such a complcit plan truly exists, they are totally unaware of it."

It's tactics, Kev. Strategy. It's not conspiracy. It's not nefarious. The end result of the Republican plan as I have outlined it will be a distinctly Republican political victory resulting in a much more conservative America. I have also explained why such a strategy is necessary and why the more direct methods fail.

I have asked you to explain what your version of the GOP strategy is, and you have yet to do that. Try. Tell me about a strategy that follows strict adherence to the GOP platform and yet allows for the observable events of the Bush Administration, making it all make sense. Without an underlying structure, one could only witness a jumble of contradictions that would lead to the conclusion that the only way this party could be leading the country with such a mandate is that we are a nation of retards being led by monkeys.

Take the examples that I have given you... hell, add to them if you wish... and tell me how else all that makes sense in a GOP dominated government.

"People talk a good game, but they like their entitlements. Elected officials learn this the hard ay, and thus get burned! Every official wants to bring back to their district, and if everyone is doing this, the spending goes wild!"

And then the welfare state eventually collapses under it's own weight. As long as Republicans would fight the growth of the entitlement structure, they were restraining it's growth... keeping it sustainable. They were always easy to paint as the bad guys that love to take food from the mouths of babies and cancel Grandma's checks. They learned to fight fire with fire.

This is tiring. I know you are smart enough to understand all this. All I ask is that you genuinely try. You are actually starting to prove me right by arguing with me. Keep doing that. I'll catch up with later on tonight.

[ziggytrix]

Does brevity piss you off or what?

[KevinTheOmnivore]

Maybe if you'd read more than every other paragraph I waste on you, your comprehension would be higher.

I (unfortuantely) read every single paragraph. Since you don't seem willing to respond directly to anything I say, why should I respond to every single word in yourtreatise.....?

And remember what I said a while back, preech-- It's not that we don't understand....we just think you're wrong. :)

I'll respond to War & Peace later.

[Preechr]

Do you really want me to explain that to you?

DO YOU?!

[Preechr]

Well, as I said, if you understand me, then stop pretending you don't and start arguing with my points instead of your strawmen.

[KevinTheOmnivore]

Preechr, cut the shit. I get it. Bloated government. Conservative plan. I've heard it before.

I think you're wrong. Deal with it!

[Preechr]

Kevin, cut the shit. If you got it, you'd be arguing it instead of arguing stuff that has nothing to do with it. Where did you hear it before? I know I didn't cut and paste this from TownHall.com. If you've found some other people better able to discuss this, PLEASE let me know where to find them.

Start participating in the actual discussion or stop posting in the thread.

If you do wish to continue, feel free to re-post anything and everything you think I have failed to address and I will gladly respond to every single bit of it.

[KevinTheOmnivore]

Preechr, this is how you deal with people who think you are wrong. "You simply don't get me, see, I have a terribly nuanced idea, but you just aren't getting it." :rolleyes

Chill out. You've talked about your theory before, and I've heard it elsewhere (surprisingly, you may not be the only one who reads Townhall.com!).

I've responded to your points with facts, links, and reason. Your response has been "oh well whatever you aren't talking about what I'm talking about, I'm clearly too nuanced for you, rollyeyes emoticon."

like I said, I will get to it later.

And the word of the day is pithy, Preech.

[KevinTheOmnivore]

So, in the world of your silly little argument, the only option to McCain being a guaranteed nominee is that the world is run by a group of evil Republicans that I refuse to name for you. Any other explanation that I try to provide for you seems to get mutated into that, so why bother again?

You have utterly FAILED to explain what will derail McCain.

I have never once claimed him to be a lock for the nomination, however i've attempted to show to you and explain to you what makes him the most likely candidate RIGHT NOW.

You believe he will ultimately lose because *somebody* will prevent him from getting the nomination. When I asked you to tell me who they, him, her, or it was, you went on a diatribe about the history of the American welfare state, and the supposed Republican plot to bust the bank on federal programs.

if anyone is having difficulty getting a message across and comprehending the conversation, it's you my friend.


"You keep implying that some group of Republicans will eventually "make the call" on McCain, which will crush his state-by-state infrastructure, force the resignation of top Bush consultants and fundraisers from his team, kill his popularity, and annoint some TBD governor as the likely candidate.

I'd like a little bit more substance than that, sorry."

I'm not implying anything, Kevin. I tried my level best to methodically explain to you that McCain is not inline with the party's current strategic direction, and I explained to you what that direction is. I am not arguing with you that McCain is a good Republican. I am not saying he's bad, just that his preferred strategy is not the same as that of the larger party at this time.


You tried and failed miserably.

Where is this "strategic direction" enumerated? The party platform? I challenge you to find me ONE 2006 congressional candidate who is running on this supposed "strategic direction" you've mentioned.

Here's the bottom line-- This idea of cracking the welfare state before it can be fixed, it may be right. But this is politics. Politics is about messaging. Even if there were a plan to spend and spend and spend until the systems fail, NOBODY in the Republican Party is going to run on this idea. When it comes to campaigns and elections, Republicans are going to run on tax breaks and fiscal discipline.....whether they REALLY want it or not.

For example:

/www.hillnews.com/thehill/export/TheHill/News/Frontpage/033006/mccain.html

"It remains to be seen whether McCain can execute a new Southern strategy, but Southerners have noted his presence.

“He’s been down there working hard. He’s got a lot of support,” said Republican Jim DeMint, South Carolina’s junior senator.

The two senators have collaborated on a campaign to cut federal spending, an issue that DeMint predicts will be front and center in the Republican primary. “I hear that more than anything else,” DeMint said."

Republicans will at least have to publicly cow tow to McCain's message in that sense, because they will at least play it off as inline with their own. Follow?

So, if no Republican will come out and overtly say that McCain is the wrong fit, then it would have to be a more covert, unspoken sabotage, would it not?

So this once again leads me to the question-- who/what will bring down McCain, and how will this be done???


was the only advantage a potential candidate could have, I'd agree with your projections, but it's not. If it were, Dean would have been running against Bush in 04.

There were many, many, many reasons the Dean campaign fell apart, and it had nothing to do with DNC sabotage. Nor was it's Dean's failure to "be in line" with the party faithfuls. The Dean campaign was poorly structured, and it finally culminated in Iowa (to put what would otherwise be a very long discussion short).


I am trying to explain to you is that McCain's media advantage, though considerable, does not guarantee him a spot on the ticket. Yes, the base likes him well enough, but if the party doesn't agree with his strategic view, he might as well try to use his media advantage to get the nomination from the Democratic Party.

Okay, so we're getting there!!!

"The Party" Who is this????

And the name recognition the media gave to McCain will also assist his base turnout. It's actually quite remarkable. You can see it slowly happening, but the Lefty bloggers and the media are starting to get pretty nasty towards their favorite Democrat. So, they gave him all of the unearned media, advanced his name, and now they're going to start trashing him like they do the president. The base will love that.

McCain will save money on their rhetoric.


Now, while McCain's message will resonate with the Republican base, his methods do not jibe with the methods the party has been employing successfully so recently. Why would the other also powerful and influential members of the party accept his leadership if it does not match their current direction?

They have and will continue to adore McCain because he is popular, respected, admired, and draws in bi-partisan support. This is often the face the GOP likes to put forward.

And again, you've actually failed to explain how McCain's message conflicts with "the party's" (whereas I've provided you a quote showing that officials in the south actually embrace his message)


No, he decided to wait for his turn to come back around. He has continued to vote on his principles, but if you ever listen to the conservative talk shows or read the GOP biased opinion pieces about McCain, he is considered a spoiler rather than a leader of the party.

I think that's debateable, and I'd like you to back it up. I know that Republicans are often critical of him, but those same hypocrites will gladly have him stump for them in their districts and raise money. McCain doesn't need them to like him, he needs them to shut their mouths and work for him. He is working on establishing the latter, and if 2006 doesn't go well for the GOP (which all premonitions are saying) you will see these people at the state level (elected officials, party operatives, big party supporters, campaign staffers, etc.) flock to McCain like he were Moses.

Please note, as well, you just said that the GOP favored Bush in order to regain the White House. Is this where I'm supposed to start harangueing you to give me the names of the supposed black robes cultists that made this evil decision while scrying through their unholy crystals in their hollowed out volcano?

The GOP in certain states favored him. The GOP in places such as New Hampshire had a different opinion.

And what I ACTUALLY said was that the party (RNC and respective campaign staffs, as well as elected officials) wanted to put the primary behind them and beat the Democrats. McCain staffers ended up on the Bush team, and state officials who endorsed McCain PROBABLY endorsed Bush. This isn't some "strategic initiative", it's just obvious.


"McCain will run as a tax cutting fiscal conservative. Let's not get into what he'll actually have to do once he's president, because that rarely has to do with elections."

Wow. I didn't realize he'd already run and won.

Stop being dense. My point (and I think it's pretty clear) was that McCain will run as one thing, and would potentially govern as something else entirely.


Ok, well at least now you're trying to play along. I understand your admiration for McCain. I disagree with you on your projections, as I have explained in detail, but I'm willing to let you be proven wrong.

Well if you intend to do that you had better catch up.

I don't give a shit about McCain. I study politics. I know campaigns, I've worked on several campaigns, and I'm getting a friggin degree in campaigns. Remember, the twisted attraction blah blah blah stuff????

The only thing I've done here is to point out the strategic steps McCain has taken to secure the nomination. Again, I've NEVER EVER said he had the nomination locked. I was in fact the FIRST to point out the difficulty senators have in this whole thing. You are the ONLY one making guarantees here, and doing it without any relevant citation at that.

I've said it before, if it's McCain/Hillary in 2008, I will probably vote McCain. Maybe Hillary can impress me, we'll see. If my ticket of Warner/Feingold could happen I will not vote for McCain. But much like McCain, Clinton is taking steps to remold the party in her own image. They have opposite problems with the electorate, but are doing very similar things in order to make themselves the frontrunners.


A McCain Administration would be much different than Bush's, though Max would still hate him. I really do respect the guy for his integrity, and I really do think that would shine through in his presidency. I just don't think he's going to get the chance because his party won't support him.

"his party" being?

I think McCain would try to govern the way he thinks, but get crushed by reality. However, as I said before, he would certainly veto spending legislation.

And yes, Max will hate him, but probably with good reason.


McCain is not bullet-proof, and without the full support of his party, he can be taken out just like any other politician. Just like he was in 99, or just like guys like Rove and Carville have done to sooo many other generally decent guys.

Okay, now you're starting to show some clarity and make some sense.

Rove and Carville are not their parties. in fact, truth be told, guys like Carvilel and Rove care very little about the actual party structure. They are in the business of winning and electing candidates. McCain didn't lose in 2000 because he lost the intellectual policy debate, he lost becasue the Bush team was craftier, smarter, and yes, dirtier.

THIS is why McCain is trying to deal with that early, and is building PARTY support at the grassroots, rather than the populist sort of support he had in 2000. He isn't going to have idealistic college kids and true-believer conservatives and independents running his canvassing and outreach. It's going to be local party leaders, donors, campaigners, and officials. He's going for the Bush people, to put it short.


Maybe you are right. Maybe the GOP will rally around him and everything will go off without a hitch. I don't see why you are so hung up on him, honestly. It's obvious by now that I see it as just as much a no-brainer in the other direction, but thanks for forcing me to go into such detail as to why.

Please remember that you're the guy with his poster on your wall. You're the guy who really believes that he's "the maverick", even though I showed you that he has governed and voted almost staunchly conservative.

Elections are not about having one cohesive unit supporting you 100%. You've seen what classifies as a mandate, right? It's about splitting the electorate, and finding the combination that gets you 50 +1. That's it. He doesn't need the RNC, or every single GOP member of Congress, or every single Republican in every single state to support him.


"Preech, you should go talk to some folks at the DNC. Go out to the bar with them. If such a complcit plan truly exists, they are totally unaware of it."

It's tactics, Kev. Strategy. It's not conspiracy. It's not nefarious. The end result of the Republican plan as I have outlined it will be a distinctly Republican political victory resulting in a much more conservative America. I have also explained why such a strategy is necessary and why the more direct methods fail.

I get the latter, and I think that's a different thread.

You have completely failed to explain or support the former. Sorry.

asked you to explain what your version of the GOP strategy is, and you have yet to do that. Try. Tell me about a strategy that follows strict adherence to the GOP platform and yet allows for the observable events of the Bush Administration, making it all make sense.

Elections and policy are two different things. I'll staple that to my head for ya if you'd like.

Elections, ESPECIALLY House races, are more commonly run as local campaigns. There have been historical exceptions to this rule, and 2006 might prove to be one of those examples, if the Democrats can bring Bush and DeLay's troubles down to the local races.

But GENERALLY there is no cohesive strategy. If you need examples, look at NM-1. I'm not going to go on about it any further, unless you'd really, really like to.

[Preechr]

This is a big waste of time. I'm pretty sure you are fully capable of understanding the difference between strategy and conspiracy, yet for some reason it suits you to act as if you aren't. You are actually demanding that I explain to you what I mean by "his party" when I refer to McCain's party? Hint: HIS PARTY IS THE REPUBLICAN ONE.

"You have utterly FAILED to explain what will derail McCain."

You have utterly failed to read then. Damn, man. This is not that complicated. There is no reason I should have to explain it again, as I have already done that four different ways. If you are really that concerned about what I think, just go back and re-read the thread.

What is remarkable about your entire method of continuing this discussion is that the more you type, the more you answer the questions you are asking of me.

"Where is this 'strategic direction' enumerated? The party platform? I challenge you to find me ONE 2006 congressional candidate who is running on this supposed "strategic direction" you've mentioned..."

"This plan can't be stated publicly. Nobody who walks around with an American flag and their 'I'm a conservative!' badge would agree to this. So, Republicans are still forced to run like McCain and govern like Bush. Bottom Line..."

Both you. I keep asking you to look at HOW Bush is governing. I keep asking you to offer up an alternative strategy that could be driving the Republican Party while including the things the Party has actually accomplished, and that's just one more thing you are choosing to ignore.

Are the actions of the current Republican Party dominated government in line with their platform? Freakin NO. Obviously not. How the hell do you explain that, Kevin? I really don't want to hear anything else you have to say on this issue until you can appease me with that. I understand that you are focusing your education on campaigns alone, but surely you have to see, when you tell me over and over that what is said in campaigns has basically no bearing on the actual governance produced by campaigning, that there is something other than just campaigning to politics, right?

That something is strategy, buddy. Strategy lives a much more robust life than do campaign promises. Even the best campaigns of mice and men will never elect a dead possum, and even the most electable candidate ever will not receive campaign support from a party that disagrees with his or her strategy for it's future.

Part of the campaign support I'm talking about there is that thing that was missing for McCain when Bush's campaign started hitting below the belt in 99. His party, the Republican one, did not help him to overcome the attacks and win. His party, the Republican one, chose instead to allow and thus support the Bush campaign's "dirty tricks." Why? They preferred Bush's compliance to the greater party's general strategy for governence.

I submit to you that the strategy I am talking about here is evident in the record of what the Republican Party has actually accomplished since Bush's election. I have clearly explained to you in this thread what I believe their long-term strategy is, and you have yet to explain to me what it is you believe their long-term strategy to be... so far.

Contrarily, it appears to me that I have repeatedly acknowledged your contentions regarding McCain's efforts so far in his campaign efforts. Funny how I am responding to all of your points, but somehow the one point I am trying to add to your one-sided and unfocused ("I have never once claimed him to be a lock for the nomination, however i've attempted to show to you and explain to you what makes him the most likely candidate RIGHT NOW...") point that is essentially about as interesting or relevant as exclaiming the time of day is being completely ignored by you in your responses. Why do you think that is?

How's McCain doing now, Kevin? How bout now? How bout now? What's the point? You can do better than Matt Drudge or another sort of political Swatch Watch.

I'm thinking the root of your difficulty in this is that we have different views of governing and politics. It seems you see governance as random masturbation of public whim where I see it as a persistent struggle to control private activity. We both admit, however, that campaigns have little or no effect on governance. Campaigns are actually the fakiest part of politics. See why I jumped to the strategy part of the conversation so quickly? There's the meat of the formula that allows us to make real predictions. I'm just trying to help you by adding some relevance to the conversation.

So, again, explain to me your conception of the current Republican long-term strategy that allows your earliest comments regarding the wonderful and interesting McCain campaign that makes them seem in any way at all relevant to anything. I am so on the edge of my seat that I could fall asleep.

[KevinTheOmnivore]

"Where is this 'strategic direction' enumerated? The party platform? I challenge you to find me ONE 2006 congressional candidate who is running on this supposed "strategic direction" you've mentioned..."

"This plan can't be stated publicly. Nobody who walks around with an American flag and their 'I'm a conservative!' badge would agree to this. So, Republicans are still forced to run like McCain and govern like Bush. Bottom Line..."

Both you.


.....and!!? Both of those statements are completely consistent. Here, I'll put them in a paragraph for you:

Where is this 'strategic direction' enumerated? The party platform? I challenge you to find me ONE 2006 congressional candidate who is running on this supposed "strategic direction" you've mentioned. If Republicans are so obviously and decidedly behind being big spenders, than show me a candidate who is running on it. This plan can't be stated publicly. Nobody who walks around with an American flag and their 'I'm a conservative!' badge would agree to this. So, Republicans are still forced to run like McCain and govern like Bush. Bottom Line..."

There's rhetoric and there's policy. You seem to think that the Republican Party (without ever fully addressing who made this deicision) has decided to bust the bank, tap it dry, and start from scratch. Let me sa this one more time-- I THINK THAT'S A DIFFERENT THREAD, AND I'M NOT EVEN SAYING THAT YOU'RE NECESSARILY WRONG.

However, as I will show you below, Republicans at the federal and state level still need to campaign on conservative rhetoric, generally.

So, here we are again-- Your theory on why McCain can't win. According to you, he can't win, b/c the GOP has decided to be big spenders for the time being. I have shown you (and will continue to show you) that the Republicans can't attack McCain's fiscal conservatism in rhetoric, b/c they themselves at least PUBLICLY embrace it. I think this argument is irrefutable, and unless you can prove me wrong with public statements and platforms from campaigns, than don't bother.

Here are what Republicans say about spending, both at the federal level and the state:

"The Senate emergency spending bill represents a huge spending spree, but the big losers will be the American taxpayers stuck with the tab. President Bush requested $92 billion for the War on Terror and some hurricane spending. The House used fiscal restraint and stayed within the President's request for true emergency spending. We support the President's threat to veto the wayward spending bill. The American people don't deserve a special interest shopping cart disguised as a supplemental." LINK (http://releases.usnewswire.com/GetRelease.asp?id=64955)

MADISON, Wis. - "A proposed constitutional amendment to limit state spending, passed last week by the Assembly, ran into trouble on two fronts Monday.

A fiscal report said it would have produced virtually no change in state revenue growth over the last decade, and a Senate committee hammered it for not going far enough.

The limits would have capped annual revenue growth at 4.6 percent between fiscal years 1995 and 2004, the nonpartisan Legislative Fiscal Bureau report said. Actual annual revenue growth over those years was 4.5 percent.

"It's just like saying nothing," said Sen. Glenn Grothman, R-West Bend, who chairs a special Senate committee formed to deal exclusively with the amendment. He is crafting a new, tougher version the Senate could see later this week.

Republicans who control the state Legislature have been pushing for caps on government spending for years in hopes of holding down taxes and giving themselves points on the campaign trail." LINK (http://www.duluthsuperior.com/mld/duluthsuperior/14475689.htm)

"The good news is that the Assembly Republicans have decided to say no to Schwarzenegger. Schwarzenegger said he wants to spend $7 billion more than the state receives in revenue. The Assembly Republicans said no, the state should only spend what it takes in.

Schwarzenegger said he wants to expand government as fast as Gray Davis. The Assembly Republicans said no, they want to slow down the growth of government.

The Schwarzenegger budget did not resolve the state's debt issues, particularly the $15 billion debt that Gray Davis created. The Assembly Republicans said they want to make sure that debt is paid, before we spend another dime in new state programs." LINK (http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2006/05/01/opinion/commentarycal/43006184857.txt)

"Sen. Brad Burzynski, R-Clare, noted that the budget includes $30,000 for Governor's State University for a display to honor legislators who attended the university.

"My understanding is they've been whistling people in all week to make deals and give people the pork that they want in order to sign them on (to vote for the budget)," said Sen. Christine Radogno, R-Lemont, the Republican candidate for treasurer.

Radogno also said the state only expects to collect about $900 million in additional taxes next year, but the budget increases spending by $1.4 billion.

"We're still spending more than we are taking in," Radogno said." LINK (http://www.pjstar.com/stories/050306/REG_B9N5O16N.046.shtml)



I keep asking you to look at HOW Bush is governing. I keep asking you to offer up an alternative strategy that could be driving the Republican Party while including the things the Party has actually accomplished, and that's just one more thing you are choosing to ignore.

No, it's your diversion. You're answering my question with a question. Bush hasn't vetoed a spending bill, true. If you believe his argument, it's because he doesn't have a line item veto at his disposal. I dunno, that's probably bullshit.

However, you have overlooked the fact that A. his fellow Republicans HAVE criticized him on this, and B. Bush governs the way a politican slapped with the reality of entitlement governs. He tried that whole "ownership society" stuff, remember? Did he really intentionally make an ass of himself, stumping on revamping Social Security? The American people weren't too responsive to that.

According to your logic, he intentionally must've done that, all so we could ACTUALLY keep the SS system the same, so that it BREAKS! MUWAHAHA!!

You contradict yourself. All the time you critize members of both parties of being greedy, incompetent, and lacking vison. Yet you somehow believe that the Republican Party, starting all the way at the top with Bush and going down to the local county parties, can manage a hush-hush plan to break the bank. How do you reconcile this?


Are the actions of the current Republican Party dominated government in line with their platform? Freakin NO. Obviously not. How the hell do you explain that, Kevin? I really don't want to hear anything else you have to say on this issue until you can appease me with that. I understand that you are focusing your education on campaigns alone, but surely you have to see, when you tell me over and over that what is said in campaigns has basically no bearing on the actual governance produced by campaigning, that there is something other than just campaigning to politics, right?

The platforms are meaningless, and they have been since the democratization of the conventions. It's debateable whether or not they ever had a huge impact.....

I've given you my opinion on why Republicans say one thing and govern another. I'm of the opinon that ideolouges will say a whole lot of things, and voters will either cheer or boo respectively. They'll do this, up until the point they want their road fixed, or more cops on their street, or they want their social security check, or they want their military to go to war, etc. etc.

Voters ant it all. Hav you ever seen some of th data on general public opinion regarding government? Americans contradict themselves al the damn time. When Americans vote and also EXPECT those that they votefor to govrn a certain way, then you might see less double-speak. Maybe then.


That something is strategy, buddy. Strategy lives a much more robust life than do campaign promises. Even the best campaigns of mice and men will never elect a dead possum, and even the most electable candidate ever will not receive campaign support from a party that disagrees with his or her strategy for it's future.

ugh.....you do realize that the parties have less actual control over elections now than ever, right? I just can't even continue with this. You can't substantiate a damn thing you're saying.

Is the party the RNC, the Bush administration, the Republicans in congress, the Republican governors, the republican state committees, the republican county committees, the individual registeredrepublicans of every single state....!!?? WHO ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT!!?

Seriously, answer this, or don't respond. When you can tell me who has this power to axe mcCain,onl then will Ibe able to tolerate any more of this.


Part of the campaign support I'm talking about there is that thing that was missing for McCain when Bush's campaign started hitting below the belt in 99. His party, the Republican one, did not help him to overcome the attacks and win. His party, the Republican one, chose instead to allow and thus support the Bush campaign's "dirty tricks." Why? They preferred Bush's compliance to the greater party's general strategy for governence.

You mean the Republican Party in New Hampshire? Did they allow it? Republicans in Michigan?

When you say "His party, the Republican one, did not help him to overcome the attacks and win", do you mean the primary voters in the southern states that chose a seemingly more conservative candidate.....please, I could live with that! REAL PEOPLE FOR YOUR ARGUMENT!

And speaking of McCain, if you're talking about southern republicans, than you and him might be on the same page. This is why he's courting southern officials, securing southern campaigners and fundraisers, and stumping like mad for House and Senate GOPers. THAT'S why he's all of sudden best friends with Jerry Falwell. Seriously, you should check out the infrastructure he's building. He's trying to re-build this party you keep mentioning in his own image. And again, as I've said previously, they will only flock to him more of 2006 goes as poorly for the GOP as anticipated.

EDIT: Here's (http://newsblogs.chicagotribune.com/news_theswamp/2006/05/a_nebraska_endo.html) an interesting story on McCain's stumping in Nebraska (and by default Iowa). The mcCain that ran and lost in 2000 had a lot of ideas on how to govern. That's great and all, but in the era of the permanent campaign, it's getting votes. That's it. McCain has learned his lesson, and he knows that you play this game if you want to get in the door and make some change.


I submit to you that the strategy I am talking about here is evident in the record of what the Republican Party has actually accomplished since Bush's election. I have clearly explained to you in this thread what I believe their long-term strategy is, and you have yet to explain to me what it is you believe their long-term strategy to be... so far.

Men and women trying to keep their jobs don't have national plans. Period.

okay, so here's where we are...once again. The entire basis for your argument is Republican spending in the United States Congress (irregardless of what's happening in state houses, county governments, towns, villages, etc.). You believe that high Republican spending is a "clear" indicator of a cohesive, national strategy to spend, spend, spend.

But there's a problem-- No Republican can publicly attack McCain for espousing fiscal conservatism. No Republican can publicly say "HEY, YOU'RE FUCKING UP OUR PLAN, ASSHOLE!!!"

So, in order for the GOP to derail him, they'll need to be clever (whoever "they" are). They'll need to publicly say the same things he says, al that jazz about pork, and balanced budgets, etc., but they'll ALSO have to subversively sink him.

So we come back to this-- HOW WILL THIS BE DONE, AND WHO, WHO, WHO WILL DO IT???


How's McCain doing now, Kevin? How bout now? How bout now? What's the point? You can do better than Matt Drudge or another sort of political Swatch Watch.


Matt Drudge at least has sources and pretends to be a journalist. At this point, I'd love Matt Drudge.

I read a lot of things. Apparently you do too, although we wouldn't know it. I back up my arguments, whereas you just type and type and type. You're like the Kerouac of message board trolls.

[Preechr]

I honestly have no idea of how to continue this. The only thing I can think of doing here is to once again re-state things I've already said.

How about we just wait and see what happens with McCain. If I'm right, you'll just have to trust me from now on. I told you my ideas are not stuff I'm cutting and pasting off Townhall.com, and you misunderstood that to mean that I was getting my ideas off Townhall.com. I am presenting you a logical argument, and your requirement for further discussion is that I only use regurgitated material from someone else's mind.

I thought you'd enjoy thinking something through for yourself. I understand every point you've made, and I can see where this discussion has hardened and softened some of your points, but I didn't start into this to trade links. I am glad, though, that you find my idea of Republican strategy not only worthy enough of FINALLY recognizing, but also also at one point something you might even agree with (before you got back on your tirade demanding names despite all my efforts to explain to you how it works) and maybe even deserving of it's own thread. I don't think I've ever felt so validated.

By the way: Those two quotes of yours were not meant to show that you weren't being consistent, but that you have an annoying habit of answering the questions you keep demanding of me for yourself.

PPS: If I'm a troll, I really don't advise you spend so much time on me. A mod should be more judicious with his time, IMO.

[KevinTheOmnivore]

I thought I told you not to respond unless you were going to contribute something of substance???

Seriously, how much time have i spent on you? i allowed this thread to drop for weeks, up until you had a tantrum over how nobody understands you.

How about we wait and see if you can come up with an argument, and then we'll pick it up again.

[Preechr]

Ok... That's better.

Let's both starting holding our breath... NOW!

[mburbank]

I hate to get back to what this thread is about, but now Mccain is saying he thinks Mr. I Ran The Illegall Warantless Wiretapping Dealio is a GREAT choice to head the CIA! And besides, it's the Presidents choice and we are at war! OH MY GOD, next thing you know there will be an internet video of a smling Mccain getting boned up the fudgey by W!

There's being a politicasl pragmatist and then there's SELLING YOUR SOUL TO THE DEVIL! I think they killed Mccain and replced him with a robot.

[KevinTheOmnivore]

He's very pro-military, supports the war, and votes very conservatively.

I'm not saying you shouldn't disapprove of him, but the John McCain originally presented by the media is a myth on many levels.

[mburbank]

The John McCain that thought W was beneath contempt for concidering slurs about the potential blackness of his daughter was a legitimate political tactic was not an invention.

The John Mccain who's support for the military and conservatism led him to publicly disrespect a gang of Chickenhawks and think their attacks of Max Cleland and John Kerry were hameful was not an invention.

John Mccain is and always has been a lot of things I don't like. But he isn't stupid. He knows better. And he has decided that a shot at being the President is worth cozying up to this gang of lizrads is worth it.

I think that's disgusting.

I always disliked Mccains politics. I used to admire his candor. I find his eagerness to juggle lumps of Bush excrement deeply repulsive.

[KevinTheOmnivore]

The John McCain that thought W was beneath contempt for concidering slurs about the potential blackness of his daughter was a legitimate political tactic was not an invention.

So are you suggesting it would be more noble of McCain to dismiss every single person nominated by the president, regardless of qualifications, out of political spite?

I think McCain truly supports this guy, for better or worse. Besides, what does McCain have to gain for being so supportive of the president? The guy's poll numbers are in the toilet.

The John Mccain who's support for the military and conservatism led him to publicly disrespect a gang of Chickenhawks and think their attacks of Max Cleland and John Kerry were hameful was not an invention.

First off, how is that inconsistent with him suporting the new CIA chief?

I don't think he ever referred to the president as a "chicken hawk", btw.


I always disliked Mccains politics. I used to admire his candor. I find his eagerness to juggle lumps of Bush excrement deeply repulsive.

Again though, that would seem counter-productive to me. Maybe he's playing some kind of reverse psychology game, anticipating that everyone will turn on the prez but him, and aww shucks, sure I'll allow my campaign staff to work for ya, John.

[KevinTheOmnivore]

http://www.rep-am.com/story.php?id=6901

"John McCain is a strong conservative," Falwell said. "He's pro-life. His view on family is just where most conservatives Christians' views are. And he and I are friends now."

[Preechr]

It's a poll, so it must be valid. That's what they taught Kevin in school. Lots of Southerners in Minnesota. Yep.

Newt Gingrich Wins 2008 Straw Poll

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who engineered the Republican takeover of Congress a dozen years ago, got a boost tonight from Minnesota conservatives who want him to run for president in 2008.

Gingrich was the top vote-getter in a straw poll of G-O-P activists at the state party convention.

But the vote is at best a limited reflection of Republican sentiment in the state - the ranks of the 12-hundred-plus delegates had thinned down considerably by the time the poll was taken, and 540 valid votes were cast.

That was about ten hours into the second day of the convention, hours after the day's marquee event - the endorsement of Governor Pawlenty.

Gingrich got 210 votes in the straw poll, or almost 39 percent. That's more than twice as many as Senator George Allen of Virginia, who came in second.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was third, followed by Arizona Senator John McCain, Florida Governor Jeb Bush and Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

© 2006 Associated Press.

[KevinTheOmnivore]

It's a poll, so it must be valid. That's what they taught Kevin in school.

Trying to insult me won't better enable you to make up for the ground you lost in this thread.


But the vote is at best a limited reflection of Republican sentiment in the state - the ranks of the 12-hundred-plus delegates had thinned down considerably by the time the poll was taken, and 540 valid votes were cast.

:lol

Yeah, and Preechr appears to have learned what every other internet crusader on the web has learned-- bash polling until you find the one you like......especially when it's a 540 person vote conducted during happy hour at some meaningless convention.

[KevinTheOmnivore]

It's sort of interesting and pathetic all at the same time that Gingrich would lobby so hard for support at this particular convention.

in the long run, it's meaningless, because it's a poor reflection of the overall electorate (even the primary voters). However, maybe Newt could use this as some kind of catalyst, since it's clearly getting harped on by Newters all around the web.

He doesn't have a prayer.

http://www.politics1.com/

"What is more interesting is that convention delegates all received a two-page letter that boasted "no one can articulate a Republican vision for America better" than Gingrich -- and it warned of "a significant risk that a moderate candidate will get the Republican nomination in 2008." The letter went on to attack McCain and former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani, saying "between them they have supported tax hikes, free speech restrictions, amnesty for illegal immigrants, gay marriage and abortion." The letter was signed by Republican National Committeeman Brian Sullivan, former State GOP Chair Chris Georgacas, former Republican National Committeeman Jack Meeks and several other leading state GOP activists. Former Congressman Vin Weber (R-MN) -- a close Gingrich ally -- also remains very influential in the Minnesota GOP."

[Preechr]

I told you he would be working toward these ends. The main reason I posted that was because, though pretty much meaningless, it in some small way validates my predictions. You said you wanted sources and links and whatnot, so if I can find some, I'll post them for you.

I say what I think. What I think is influenced by all the things I have read and heard. I can't link you to my mind. Please remember, the only times you will generally see me linking anything is when I want to stir up some poopy and I'm too lazy to sit down and pick a fight in my own words. It's even more rare to see me referencing a poll.

I thought you could play on that level. If you want to trade links, I'll give that a shot. So far, all I've basically said here is that McCain won't be the Republican candidate in 08, and that though Newt would likely throw his hat in as well, he'd likely not make it. I predicted a governor will get the nod.

You asked me why I thought those things, and I tried to explain that to you. As I said, I cannot link my mind. I honestly have no idea how many books and articles I've read in the last fifteen years, which is the time during which I've been interested in politics, so I'm just not gonna be able to help you retrace my steps. Really, all you have to do is prove your own case. I'm willing to listen.

At this point, you've already said you don't believe McCain's a lock. My question to you is why is it that the efforts he's made (and you catalogued) to that end are so important? You tend to spend most of your typing time in this thread challenging me rather than advancing your own ideas. Where do presidents come from in your world? Don't link stuff, just make sense and I'll get it.

[KevinTheOmnivore]

I don't think you can follow sense, or reality for that matter. Presidents come from hard fought campaigns, good circumstances, money, support, anf fairy dust.

What bothers me about your whole perspective on campaigns is that you seem to think it's still a bunch of men smoking cigars in a back room making the call. it hasn't been like that for a long time, but to make matters worse, you can't even tell me who these mythical cigar smokers in the room ARE!

Name a popular campaign forthe presidency,or for congress, and I can probably tell you about the work and sweat that person put into it to win. That doesn't make them a good person, or the right person, or my favoritest person. it just is what it is.

I think Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton are fantastic examples. Both of these men, despite whatever negative things they may be remembered for, never had any victories (with the exception, maybe, of '72) handed to them on a silver platter. Both these men were tireless campaigners, and not always very popular even within their own parties. They still clawed their way towards what they wanted.

This doesn't make them good people, good leaders, or even people that I would vote for. It again, simply is what it is.

As for Newt-- he interests me. I think the Right is screaming in 2008 for a Dean-type of personality to mix up the deck, and perhaps reshape the debate (if anyone can recall, prior to Dean, not too many Dems were quick to talk about Iraq and withdrawal possibilities).

I personally think someone like Brownback could also be this niche darkhorse, bt he would need to do a lot b/f that could happen. Newt already has the policy ideas, I just think he lacks any rea support beyond very small sub-groups and ideologues.