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Mar 20th, 2007 12:50 PM
Preechr Russia reportedly exits Iran nuke site
By GEORGE JAHN, Associated Press Writer 56 minutes ago



Russia is pulling out its experts from the Iranian nuclear reactor site they were helping build, U.S. and European officials said Tuesday. The move reflected a growing rift between Iran and Russia that could lead to harsher U.N. sanctions on the Islamic republic for its refusal to stop uranium enrichment.

The representatives — a European diplomat and a U.S. official — said a large number of Russian technicians, engineers and other specialists have returned to Moscow in the past week, at about the same time senior Russian and Iranian officials tried unsuccessfully to resolve financial differences over the Bushehr nuclear reactor. They spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because their information was confidential.

"A good number of them have left recently," said the U.S. official, of the approximately 2,000 Russian workers on site of the nearly completed reactor outside the southern city of Bushehr. The European diplomat, who is accredited to the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency, said a large number had left as recently as last week.

Sergei Novikov, a spokesman for Rosatom, Russia's Federal Nuclear Power Agency, confirmed that the number of Russian workers at the Bushehr plant had dwindled because of what he said were Iranian payment delays. He would not say how many had left.

The Russian departures are formally linked to a financial dispute with Iran but have a strong political component, linked to international efforts to persuade the Islamic republic to freeze activities linked to uranium enrichment, which can produce both nuclear fuel and the fissile material for nuclear warheads.

Although the reactor is 95 percent completed, Russia announced this month that further work would be delayed because Iran had failed to make monthly payments since January. It said the delay could cause "irreversible" damage to the project.

Because of the delay, Russia also indefinitely postponed delivery of enriched uranium fuel it had promised to provide Iran by this month.

Iran, which denies falling behind in payments, was furious, convinced Russia — which has long blunted a U.S.-led push for the U.N. Security Council sanctions — was now using the claim of financial arrears as a pretext to increase pressure for it to heed the council.






Copyright © 2007 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
Mar 19th, 2007 11:52 PM
Abcdxxxx Sounds like it's time for y'all to buy another book then. As if what we really need is a retired professor in the subject of Marxism advising out defense department.
Mar 19th, 2007 10:23 PM
Preechr That book I've referenced (The Pentagon's New Map) was written by a military/intelligence analyst that counts himself a Democrat. Everybody on that ticket is very familiar with his work, not to say the NeoCons within the R camp haven't heard him many times as well. His follow up (A Blueprint for Action) is basically, surprisingly, the working blueprint for the Democratization/Globalization of the gap states. I see his work all over the place. I've said before it's THE only, real Liberal viewpoint to be had.
Mar 19th, 2007 03:40 PM
KevinTheOmnivore For Preechr, from The Hotline:

Quote:
The New Hampshire Union Leader ed board writes, on 3/15 Edwards "presented his foreign policy vision, one that can be seen only through rose colored glasses." Edwards: "We know that terrorist thrive in failed states and in states torn apart by internal conflict and poverty."
"Perhaps, but poverty does not cause terrorism. Not one of the 9/11 hijackers was poor. Osama bin Laden and his lieutenants are not poor. Terrorism is fueled by ideology. The 'internal conflict' in Middle Eastern countries is the result of the same ideological forces that send terrorists to America, not the cause." Edwards "is stuck in a quasi-Marxist mind set in which social and economic conditions explain human behavior. However, human motivations are not so simplistic. If Edwards were to remove his rose colored glasses, maybe he could see that" (3/19).
That's right, you quasi-Marxist!
Mar 18th, 2007 05:03 PM
Abcdxxxx We're living in a world where Ethiopea takes a hardline military stance while Israel makes whishy washy attempts at war. Who can guess? A few weeks ago I might have said Egypt in combination with another country, but then they decided they'd like a bomb of their own instead. I firmly believe that as the region errupts into assymetrical wars we're going to see more assymetrical alliances that only make sense for the moment if at all. I wouldn't be shocked if it happens and nobody takes credit for it at all.

Anyway all I said was that there are other nations with an interest in a strike, not that they might be able to carry it out themselves independently.
Mar 18th, 2007 10:15 AM
KevinTheOmnivore
Quote:
Originally Posted by Abcdxxxx View Post
This whole assumption that the US/Israel are the only nations with a self interest in strikign Iran is incredibly naive.
Interest and means, however, are two different things. Maybe you can come up with one, but I can't think of another nation that right now has the means AND the political will (be it from the people or from the top) to attack Iran right now.

The UN writing a really nasty letter to Iran is one thing, but you won't see a green light o an attack, IMO. Who other than Israel ans America would do it? Would Pakistan, which doesn't even have control of its own internal borders, attack Iran..another muslim country?
Mar 17th, 2007 08:46 PM
Abcdxxxx
Quote:
Originally Posted by GAsux View Post
What political impact do military strikes have though, and are they worth it?
Too generic. You could ask this of any military manuever.

Quote:
Originally Posted by GAsux View Post
Even if you can set the program back, even a decade, what does what would presumably be a unilateral strike from either the U.S. or Israel do to it's credibility
The Iranian nuclear program itself? Setting it back a decade would probably end the chances of a nuclear Iran for another 15 years, if at all. Strategically, that's a huge bonus when one considers that two of their neighboring nations are a bit up for grabs at the moment, with Syria/Lebanon on the verge as well. I'm not entirely sure we should rule out a strike from other neighboring nations though. This whole assumption that the US/Israel are the only nations with a self interest in strikign Iran is incredibly naive.


Quote:
Originally Posted by GAsux View Post
not to mention the impact it would have on the Iranian regime? Doesn't pre-emptive air strikes afford Iran the opportunity to strengthen its position internally by rallying the people against what would then be an enemy no only in words but in deeds?
You think Iranians want to go to war over this bomb? Look, Iranians are incredibly proud and loyal to their country - but this Islamic revolution hasn't really paid off. The interests in Tehran aren't the same as the country-side. Take a look at the US and you can see how war itself can be polarizing when you're not entirely trusting of your leadership. I'm not suggesting it's a good reason to bomb, but I wouldn't rule it out out of fear it would strengthen a country already ruled by totalitarianism.

Quote:
Originally Posted by GAsux View Post
A pre-emptive air strike based on information from the intelligence community that is already facing serious credibility issues based on what transpired in Iraq seems like a ridiculously risky move.

Well how far do you want to take that logic? Disband the military? I think your assumption is, we strike their nukes, it results in a full scale war against Iran. I think that's hysteria built around military analysis and other intelligence type research which predicts the worst possible situation. My personal guess would have Iran using the opportunity to make a move for Saudi Arabia instead. This issue with Iran is more to do with a Sunni-Shia conflict then the great satan, and the little satan.

Quote:
Originally Posted by GAsux View Post
In my opinion, you would not only strengthen the Iranian regimes internal position, but allow for them to build a reasonable international case against the "unprovoked" aggressive U.S./Israeli tactics.
What use does that international case have? US/Israel are accused of everything under the sun already. If they want provocation, they can manipulate it on two different fronts which aren't even directly at their borders...and they have been doing that effectively. So what are you arguing? That public opinion will lean towards Iran? Probably, but remember, the Osirus attacks were condemned by everyone, including the US, and that opinion changed over time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by GAsux View Post
Seems like it might provide a stop gap and buy more time, but I can't see air strikes solving the problem unless we intend to carry them out every 5-10 years.
Ultimately, I see diplomacy and even sanctions being the better way to go... but I don't see any of this as being very persuasive arguments against a targeted strike.
Mar 17th, 2007 06:58 PM
GAsux What political impact do military strikes have though, and are they worth it? Even if you can set the program back, even a decade, what does what would presumably be a unilateral strike from either the U.S. or Israel do to it's credibility, not to mention the impact it would have on the Iranian regime? Doesn't pre-emptive air strikes afford Iran the opportunity to strengthen its position internally by rallying the people against what would then be an enemy no only in words but in deeds?

A pre-emptive air strike based on information from the intelligence community that is already facing serious credibility issues based on what transpired in Iraq seems like a ridiculously risky move. In my opinion, you would not only strengthen the Iranian regimes internal position, but allow for them to build a reasonable international case against the "unprovoked" aggressive U.S./Israeli tactics.

Seems like it might provide a stop gap and buy more time, but I can't see air strikes solving the problem unless we intend to carry them out every 5-10 years.
Mar 17th, 2007 07:21 AM
Abcdxxxx "Again, for me personally you're looking at either regime change or some kind of diplomacy/disincentive arrangement"

I would agree those are probably the most likely methods for the problem, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility of an attack just based on the task itself. The point would be to make a dent, and destroy the key elements with a goal of setting their program back to around 1995. That would only require 3-4 key strike points, and as they get further along, the target becomes even more central.

I also think people are a bit caught up in this idea of the US and Israel making this strike, as if they're the only ones with any contention for these developments. If Iran gets their bomb, you will see Afghanistan, and Iraq turn into a ball of insanity.
Mar 16th, 2007 06:03 PM
GAsux Again I don't claim to be a proliferation expert, nor do I claim to fully understand the science of bomb making to include materials, triggers, etc. I would agree that Iran's main labs have probably all been discovered, but I'm willing to bet that they've been at least moderately successful in maintaining secret nuclear related facilities as well.

In virtually every single case regarding intelligence estimates of countries nuclear capabilities, they were vastly underestimated. But even so, assuming we could or have located every single nuclear weapons related facility in Iran, it would be a near impossible task to destroy every single one. And even if you could, you're still talking about a temporary solution. As long as they still have the brain power, they'll always be able to rebuild, unless we're talking about some kind of annual strike package.

Again, for me personally you're looking at either regime change or some kind of diplomacy/disincentive arrangement to maintain stability in the region because I don't see air strikes being an effective long term solution.
Mar 16th, 2007 02:49 AM
Abcdxxxx Why? All he said is he thinks Iran's bomb is inevitable, and that we should take diplomatic measures. That's not even close to saying Iran's bomb is a necessary great step towards world peace.

I read GA's post, and didn't have much to add. It's all just a guess. One thing though.... Iran's labs haven't been secret for a few years now.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4617398.stm
http://www.atomicarchive.com/Almanac...cilities.shtml
Mar 15th, 2007 09:37 PM
Preechr Welcome to Team Anti-Semite.

You just wait till Abcdxxx gets here... You're in for it now, buddy.
Mar 15th, 2007 03:40 PM
GAsux I haven't seen a single nuclear energy/weapons expert advocate an form of military action against Iran. I'm not remotely close to familiar with all the workings of nuclear technology, but I understand that unlike the Iraq model, Iran has a much broader nextwork or nuclear facilities which are spread out, some in well populated areas. Further, most agree that there are likely underground facilities that remain unidentified.

From what I've read, no one in the nuclear non-proliferation field believes that any form of military strike will prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. They agree that it may delay the process a few years, but that ultimately at this point it is virtually impossible to stop the process.

Iranian strikes, whether from Israel or the US help the Iranians play the victim card and would probably go a long way towards national unity.

The Iraq war taught the Iranians some valuable lessons. If you have nukes (China, N. Korea) you have bargaining leverage with the U.S. No degree of airstrikes is going to lessen their resolve to get nukes, and as long as they have the technical know how, they'll find a way to make it happen.

For a change, I actually believe in this case diplomacy is the lesser of two evils. Accepting the inevitable and planning on how to deal with it effetively seems to me a better choice then isolation and force.
Mar 13th, 2007 12:04 PM
Preechr Cash dispute delays opening of Iranian reactor
Mark Tran and agencies
Monday March 12, 2007
Guardian Unlimited


A construction worker assembles part of Iran's nuclear power plant in the southern port of Bushehr. Photograph: Mehr News Agency/EPA


A dispute over funding has delayed the start of Iran's first nuclear power plant, the state-run Russian company building the facility said today.

"It will be impossible to launch the reactor in September, and there can be no talk about supplying fuel this month," the Russian group Atomstroyexport said in a statement after the collapse of bilateral talks last week over late Iranian payments.


The nuclear facility at Bushehr, under construction in an $800m (£414m) agreement between the Russian and Iranian governments, has been shrouded in controversy.

Of the two reactors at Bushehr, one is in an advanced stage of completion, while the other has not been worked on for some time and is not currently scheduled to be finished. Completion of the facility has been much-delayed over the years and it was supposed to have been ready in 2005.

The US has long opposed the project on the grounds that Iran has sufficient oil and gas reserves for power generation, and that nuclear reactors are expensive, unnecessary and could be used for military purposes.

Although the project is allowed under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, the US has provided Russia with intelligence information pointing to the existence of an Iranian nuclear weapons programme. Despite this, the Russians pushed ahead with the project.
The delay in the Bushehr project comes amid reports of tension between Moscow and Tehran on Iran's nuclear programme.

Russian news agencies today reported a source in Moscow as saying that Iran was abusing Russia's stance on its nuclear programme.

"Unfortunately, the Iranians are abusing our constructive relations," news agencies quoted the source as saying. The source added Iran "cannot play forever" on its good relations with Russia and "it is unacceptable for us to have an Iran with a nuclear bomb or the potential to create one".

Iran today issued a bank note with a nuclear symbol in a move seen as an example of its determination to press ahead with uranium enrichment in the face of international sanctions.

The new note for 50,000 rials (£2.80) also reflected rising inflation, a fact that has led to growing criticism of the president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. It is worth more than twice the previous highest-denomination note.

The UN security council imposed sanctions on Iran in December after it ignored a resolution demanding that it halt enrichment. The five permanent members of the council plus Germany are now considering further sanctions against Iran.

The US and some of its European allies have accused Iran of seeking uranium enrichment as a part of a secret programme to build nuclear weapons.
Enriched uranium is used as fuel in nuclear reactors but, enriched to a higher level, can be used in atomic bombs. Iran denies that it trying to build nuclear bombs, saying its program is strictly limited to generating electricity.
Mar 13th, 2007 11:33 AM
KevinTheOmnivore Is everyone writing in proses lately?

ranxer, I'll ask that you explain this comment:

Quote:
either they are that stupid or their goals are
not what they say. as many would agree with the latter we have
the 'how far do you mean that' thread but i just want to say it's bad.
not totally convinced but if we bomb Iran the control(or stupidity) by the powers that be must be worse than i want to believe.
So could you A. quantify and cite just how many people think we have some nefarious motive behind an attack that hasn't even happened yet, and B. Explain to me what the true goal of an Iran attack would be?

Does the UN have a shady motive for denouncing Iran's nuclear ambitions? What about Russia, who attempted to exchange energy with them as an alternative? How about Israel-- who went to war last summer with one of Iran's surrogate armies-- do they have another reason other than defense? Enlighten me.
Mar 12th, 2007 10:38 PM
ranxer
Quote:
Originally Posted by sspadowsky View Post
I would like to think that we're not going to hit Iran. I'd really, really like to think that...
In short, yes. I think we will. I hope that I am wrong.
i don't think we will.. too stupid a move and too big a risk,
but i thought the same thing about Iraq.
can't see anything but catastrophe if we do attack though.

my question is so if we do go to war with Iran what will it mean?

i think two basic possibilities.. either they are that stupid or their goals are
not what they say. as many would agree with the latter we have
the 'how far do you mean that' thread but i just want to say it's bad.
not totally convinced but if we bomb Iran the control(or stupidity) by the powers that be must be worse than i want to believe.

we may do 'targetted strikes' on Iran with no invasion at all and downplay the hell out of it, a ground war isn't likely.
Mar 12th, 2007 07:26 PM
Abcdxxxx I think that's a pretty typical viewpoint in Israel - they don't really want any military strikes, but they want a resolution in their favor, and feel like Syria has it coming.

I don't think Bush will order an attack, unless it's in the Saudi's interest. I don't think there's a chance in hell this administration will give Israel the type of backup it would need even for a strike against Syria. That's a painfull reality Israel will have to come to terms with. So Israel's hands are tied. Who knows though. The strike against Saddam's nukes were chastised all around, at first.
Mar 12th, 2007 06:47 PM
Johnnie I'm gonna have to agree with you. Israel does not have the capability to make a long term air assault on Iran. I mean, it has never directly fought with a distant country before. There's just no means. I think Syria is another story...being an ally and supplier of Iran.
I hope nothing will happen, things seems pretty gloomy the way they are right now. I think if something happens, the US will have to get involved. I can't answer if the States will attack first or not.
Mar 10th, 2007 10:26 AM
KevinTheOmnivore
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnnie View Post
To answer the original question. I really doubt the U.S is going to jump on Iran. It seems to me America is just waiting for Israel to do the tougher work (maybe by attacking Syria).
I disagree. I think the Israeli factor in all of this has actually put us in a pretty tough spot. I think some of the scenarios have Israel taking out supposed nuclear sites, with limited capacity to simultaneously knock out Iranian anti-aircraft and response systems successfully. This is what I've heard from war game scenarios out of the Army War College anyway, and it matches an older report from the same body. LINK

The IAF could hit spots, but not disable Iran's ability to respond. Then you have war, and the U.S. must get in. If Israel were to act alone and attack a muslim nation, I think you would see a massive build up against them from Iran, Syria, and who knows, maybe even a Russia. I think it would be quite different than when they took out the nukes in Iraq. Saddam was a thug that made most in the Arab world uncomfortable. I think this would be different, and it would pull us in.

So then I think the question becomes, if it becomes inevitable that Israel will strike, do we attack first so it gets done right?
Mar 4th, 2007 03:40 PM
Johnnie Dude, I don't see why this was blown out of proportion. All I did was give a viewpoint. I don't agree with a lot of the things the Israeli government does. I just expressed what people around feel is going on.

I don't think you can't have an opinion unless you are a ''jew living in the middle east''. I questioned you because I wanted to hear your opinion.
Mar 4th, 2007 04:13 AM
Preechr Allright. Good job.
Mar 4th, 2007 03:43 AM
Abcdxxxx Johnnie... Thomas....THEY ALL LOOK THE SAME.
Mar 4th, 2007 03:28 AM
Preechr You're talking about Johnnie, right?
Mar 4th, 2007 03:19 AM
Abcdxxxx Holy shit...is it Preechr's turn to crack up?

Maybe what's really on the line for your wife and daughter is your sanity. You realize Thomas didn't even identify himself as Jewish.
Mar 4th, 2007 02:33 AM
Preechr Well, Johnnie, we get a lot of that here, too. As a matter of fact, if I've got this understood correctly, what's really on the line here is whether or not my wife and daughter are going to be allowed to vote without wearing a burka. Needless to say, I am totally on the side of of the non-Moon-People when it comes to what we should do in this particular situation, and I agree with you fully that if I am not a Jewish person, currently living in the middle east, I have no business having any sort of opinion other than what you tell me to think of my own.

Thanks, back-up dude.
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