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Originally Posted by GAsux
It's not out of the question to think that Kerry could win even with Nader running. It seems a bit early to me to be breaking out the champagne for Dubya and Co.
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Well, I think there are a lot of dependent variables here.
1) It looks as if Nader WILL accept the Green Party nomination, despite curren reports. This is good for him, but potentially bad for the Democratic Candidate. The Greens have automatic ballot status in many/most states, however they lost it in some states like New York during the 2002 mid-cycle elections. However, ballot access doesn't guarantee ground troops. Many likely Nader supporters are already in the Anybody-But-Bush camp, thanks in part to the Dean and Kucinich campaigns. It's my opinion that those who support/supported these two guys will NOT swing towards Nader, and will instead vote AGAINST Bush this November.
2) Unlike 2000, Nader won't have the campus energy he once had. Many college kids swung towards Dean, Kucinich, and even Clark. My guess is that these youngsters will also take the above mentioned route and support the Democratic candidate, be it Kerry or Edwards.
3) We should NOT rule out the signifigance of a third-party run from the RIGHT in Roy Moore. The Constitution Party doesn't exist in every state, but it essentially has affiliates, like The U.S. Tax Payers Party in Michigan. The Christian Coalition types have not been happy with Bush lately, and anything other than a Constitutional Amendment blocking gay marriage may not appease these folks. Secondly, The Libertarians can't be happy with Bush and his domestic spending, either. If Moore is competent, and can coalition build similar to the way Barry Goldwater and others have done, he could REALLY hurt Bush from the Right....