[mburbank]

The news I'm reading doesn't even slightly take into account Ahmenaboujieboos rhetoric. That's just the way they talk over there.

Here are the things that have me worried, in no particular order.

1.) Seymour Hirsh at the New Yorker thinks it's happening, and he has an appaullingly good track record going back almost a generation. He's not known for hysteria, and saber rattling on both sides while worth noticing doesn't make him write stories ever.

2.) Several hughly placed generals have leaked that they would resign if Bush attacked Iran. It's not news that they would feel that way, but it is news that they feel enough in a corner over policy to leak something like that.

3.) If you are using a chess metaphor (as opposed to say candyland) I'll assume that you, like me, don't think W is anything more than a figurehead president. My problem is, I don't think Chenney is a chess playin' man. I think he used to be a poker guy who went semi quietly mad and is now more about shooting hundreds of drugged, fenced in birds for sport. I believe he has a lot of power, I think he got a chip on his shoulder thirty years ago over Vietnam and Watergate which has grown over the years into a full frontal crazy. He may even have begin with the idea of soft words and big sticks, but now he's in hittin' distance and I think he's a loose cannon. Now I hope their is a sane power structure in place that would stop him from going totally naa-naaa, but I think all the years he has spent building up his own offices within the regular power offices are all about making him a guy that when other people throw the breaks on, it takes a while to slow him down. I'm praying for a heart attack.

My brother, a smart guy who works for the FED, was convinced big stick was what we were doing when we massed around Iran, because there was just no damn plus side to invading. For most everybody, things have really changed since then. Most everybody is more realistic now about what we can and cannot accomplish. So it HAS to be big stick, right? 'Cause there;s just no plus side to anything else. These dudes HAVE to look elwhacko to be a credible threat, right? But I think they ARE elwhacko and they don't see any more clearlythen they did four years ago.