[FurankuS]

Well, Iran IS a threat...

With the recent elections in Iraq the possibility of the country splitting is pretty high (especially since it looks like the Sunni Muslims aren't going to pull through). If Iraq split:

The Shiites would most likely merge/ be conquered by Iran (the badness of this should be obvious)

The Kurds would start raising hell in northern ex-Iraq/ eastern Turkey to establish a Kurdish state

The Sunnis would...uh...I don't know what they'd probably do.

So if civil war breaks out in Iraq, Iran becomes VERY important.