http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/st...2244238&EDATE=
Bush/Cheney Lead Kerry/Edwards 54 to 43 Percent; in a Three-Way Trial Heat,
Bush/Cheney Receive 13-Point Margin Bounce
Bush Approval Rating Rises to 52 Percent; First Time Above 50 Since January;
Majority (53%) Wants to See Him Re-Elected-Highest Since May 2003
27 Percent of Registered Voters Think Bush/Cheney Campaign Is Behind Swift
Boat Ads
NEW YORK, Sept. 4 /PRNewswire/ -- Immediately following the Republican
National Convention in New York, the latest Newsweek Poll shows that, in a
two-way presidential trial heat, the Bush/Cheney ticket would win over a
Kerry/Edwards ticket by 54 percent vs. 43 percent among registered voters. In
a three-way trial heat, including Green Party Candidate Ralph Nader, the
Bush/Cheney ticket would still win 52 percent to 41 percent for Kerry/Edwards
and 3 percent for Nader/Camejo among registered voters. That represents a
13-point margin bounce for Bush/Cheney since an August 5-10 poll conducted by
Princeton Survey Research Associates International for the Pew Research
Center.
And even though more Americans (49%) say they are dissatisfied with the
way things are going in the U.S. at this time (43% are satisfied), President
George W. Bush's approval rating has gone up to 52 percent, a seven-point
increase since the last Newsweek Poll (July 29-30), and the first time it's
topped 50 percent since January. Also 53 percent of registered voters say the
would like to see President Bush re-elected to another term. The last time a
majority of Americans wanted to see the president re-elected was May 2003.
In comparing the two presidential candidates, more registered voters think
President Bush has strong leadership qualities than Kerry (65% vs. 47%), is
more honest and ethical (62% vs. 47%), says what he believes and not just what
people want to hear (66% vs. 42%), would trust him to make the right decisions
during an international crisis (57% vs. 44%), shares their values (54% vs.
42%), and is personally likeable (67% vs. 59%). In addition, more registered
voters think President Bush would do a better job than Sen. Kerry on various
issues: terrorism and homeland security (60% vs. 32%), the situation in Iraq
(55% vs. 37%), foreign policy (54% vs. 38%), taxes (52% vs. 38%), economy (49%
vs. 43%), education (48% vs. 42%), and gay marriage (44% vs. 36%). More
people say Sen. Kerry would do a better job than President Bush on healthcare,
including Medicare (45% vs. 43%) and the environment (50% vs. 36%).
Two months before the election, more registered voters (28%) say terrorism
and homeland security is the most important issue in determining their vote.
Twenty-one percent say it's the economy, 13 percent say healthcare and only 11
percent say the situation in Iraq. On that subject, a majority of registered
voters (55%) think that the U.S. did the right thing in talking military
action in Iraq, though 50 percent say the war has not made Americans safer
from terrorism (45% think it has). And, among registered voters, 44 percent
think Saddam Hussein's regime was not directly involved in 9-11 (42% say it
was).
Despite the four-day convention, a strong 60-percent majority of
registered voters say they saw none of (32%) or very little (28%) coverage of
the RNC on television last week. Only 40 percent say they saw some of it
(24%) or a great deal (16%). And only 36 percent say they now have a more
favorable opinion of the Republican Party, with 27 percent saying they have a
less favorable opinion. Of Independents, 29 percent said they have a more
favorable opinion of the Republicans and 27 percent said less favorable.
Following the Democratic convention in July, 41 percent who said they had a
more favorable opinion of the Democrats. Only 24 percent said they had a less
favorable opinion. And of the 45 percent of registered voters who said they
watched all or part of the President's speech, 37 percent said they had a more
favorable opinion of him, while 18 percent said it was less favorable.
As to the presidential candidates' military service, though 75 percent of
registered voters say what they've seen or heard about Bush's military service
will not have much effect on their vote, and 62 percent say the same about
Kerry's military service in Vietnam, 75 percent of registered voters have seen
or heard about the recent TV Ads sponsored by a veterans' group questioning
Kerry's military record. And 21 percent say those ads are generally accurate.
Thirty-nine percent say they are misleading or distorted. Only 25 percent are
not aware of those ads. Twenty-seven percent of registered voters think the
Bush/Cheney campaign is behind the ads, while 38 percent think they were
produced independently. (However, 26 percent of military households who have
seen or heard about John Kerry's military record say they are less likely to
vote for him).
Looking ahead to the next presidential campaign, a majority of registered
voters (50%) said they would like to see former New York City Mayor Rudy
Giuliani run for president in 2008 (65% of Republicans), followed by Arizona
Sen. John McCain (48%, 47% of Republicans), and Arnold Schwarzenegger (22%,
30% of Republicans), if the Constitution were changed to allow foreign-born
U.S. citizens to run.
This poll is part of the September 13 issue of Newsweek (on newsstands
Monday, September 6). For this Newsweek Poll, Princeton Survey Research
Associates International interviewed 1,008 adults aged 18 and older on Sept.
2-3, 2004. The margin of error is plus or minus four percentage points.
(Read Newsweek's news releases at
http://www.Newsweek.com. Click
"Pressroom" at the bottom of the page.)
Newsweek Poll: Post-Republican Convention, Princeton Survey Research
Associates International
Final Topline Results
(9/4/04)
N = 1,008 Registered Voters, 18 and over
Margin of error: plus or minus 4
Interviewing dates: September 2-3, 2004
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR TOTAL ADULTS:
1,188 Total adults (plus or minus 3)
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS:
1,008 Registered voters (plus or minus 4)
505 Thursday interviews (plus or minus 5)
503 Friday interviews (plus or minus 5)
374 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
303 Democrats (plus or minus 6)
300 Independents (plus or minus 6)
476 Men (plus or minus 5)
532 Women (plus or minus 5)
112 18-29 (plus or minus 10)
349 30-49 (plus or minus 6)
516 50+ (plus or minus 5)
283 Southern White (plus or minus 7)
559 Non-Southern White (plus or minus 5)
144 Non-White (plus or minus 8)
417 Military households (plus or minus 6)
578 Non-military households (plus or minus 5)
310 Republican states (plus or minus 6)
409 Swing states (plus or minus 6)
289 Democratic states (plus or minus 7)
541 Bush/Cheney supporters (plus or minus 5)
403 Kerry/Edward supporters (plus or minus 6)
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR SUBGROUPS OF REGISTERED VOTERS
INTERVIEWED FRIDAY
187 Republicans (plus or minus 8)
139 Democrats (plus or minus 9)
165 Independents (plus or minus 8)
NOTE: An asterisk (*) indicates a value less than 1%.
**REGIONAL DEFINITIONS
Republican states: AL, AK, CO, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MT, NE, NC,
ND, OK, SC, SD, TX, UT, VA, WY
Swing states: AZ, AR, FL, IA, ME, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NM, OH, OR, PA,
TN, WA, WV, WI
Democratic states: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT
Results for questions 1a/b and 2a/b include leaners.
1a/b. Suppose the election were being held TODAY and you had the
following three choices for president and vice president...
(INSERT CHOICES AND ROTATE) George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the
Republicans; John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats; and
Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo, the Independent or third party
candidates. Who would you vote for? [IF DO NOT SUPPORT
BUSH/CHENEY, KERRY/EDWARDS, OR NADER/CAMEJO RESPONDENTS WERE
ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward...Bush and Cheney,
the Republicans; Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats; or Nader and
Camejo?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Three-Way Trial Heat
Total Bush Total Kerry Total Nader Undec./
/Cheney /Edwards /Camejo Other
Current Total 52 41 3 4 =100
Thursday interviews 49 43 3 5 =100
Friday interviews 54 38 4 4 =100
Republicans 94 4 1 1 =100
Democrats 14 82 1 3 =100
Independents 45 40 9 6 =100
Men 54 39 4 3 =100
Women 50 43 2 5 =100
18-29 45 45 9 1 =100
30-49 56 37 3 4 =100
50+ 50 44 1 5 =100
Southern White 66 30 1 3 =100
Non-Southern White 51 41 4 4 =100
Non-White 34 56 4 6 =100
Military households 58 36 2 4 =100
Non-military households 48 43 4 5 =100
Republican states 56 37 2 5 =100
Swing states 51 42 3 4 =100
Democratic states 47 44 5 4 =100
Trends
(8/5-10/04) 45 47 2 6 =100
(7/29-30/04) 42 49 3 6 =100
(7/8-9/04) 44 47 3 6 =100
(5/13-14/04) 42 43 5 10 =100
(4/8-9/04) 42 46 4 8 =100
(3/25-26/04) 45 43 5 7 =100
(3/18-19/04) 45 43 5 7 =100
Note: August 5-10, 2004 trend from Pew Research Center. July 29-30,
2004 poll conducted during the week of the Democratic National Convention
and should not be used to estimate Bush's post-convention bounce. Trends
before 7/8-9/04 based on slightly different question wording that did not
include vice presidential candidates' names.
1c. Do you support (INSERT Q.1a CHOICE: Bush and Cheney/Kerry and
Edwards/Nader and Camejo) STRONGLY or only moderately?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Candidate Preference/Strength of Support
Total 8/5-10/04 7/29-30/04
7/8-9/04 5/13-14/04 4/8-9/04
Bush/Cheney
Voters
39 Strong 32 30 31 24 28
13 Not Strong 13 12 13 18 14
Kerry/Edwards
Voters
25 Strong 28 31 25 22 21
16 Not Strong 19 18 22 21 25
Nader/Camejo
Voters
1 Strong 1 * 1 1 1
2 Not Strong 1 3 2 4 2
4 Undecided/Other 6 6 6 10 8
100 100 100 100 100 100
Note: August 5-10, 2004 trend from Pew Research Center. July 29-30, 2004
poll conducted during the week of the Democratic National Convention and
should not be used to estimate Bush's post-convention bounce. Trends
before 7/8-9/04 based on results that did not include vice presidential
candidates.