10. Which ONE of the following issues will be MOST important in
determining your vote for president this year ... (INSERT-READ AND
ROTATE 1-7)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Rep Dem Ind 7/29-30/04
28 Terrorism and homeland security 50 10 23 21
21 The economy 14 29 19 19
13 Health care, including Medicare 5 22 13 15
11 The situation in Iraq 9 11 15 18
9 American jobs and foreign
competition 5 12 10 9
6 Education 3 6 9 6
3 Taxes 4 1 4 4
3 (VOL.-DO NOT READ) Other 3 3 4 4
6 (DO NOT READ) Don't know 7 6 3 4
100 100 100 100 100
11. Regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell
me if you trust... George W. Bush or John Kerry (ORDER ROTATED) to do a
better job handling each of the following issues. (First,) what
about... (INSERT ITEM-READ AND RANDOMIZE)? (Which do you trust do to a
better job handling this issue ... Bush or Kerry (ORDER ROTATED)?)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Bush Kerry Equal Neither DK
(VOL) (VOL)
a. The economy
Current Total 49 43 1 2 5 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 42 49 1 2 6 =100
(3/18-19/04) 43 47 2 2 6 =100
b. The situation in
Iraq
Current Total 55 37 1 2 5 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 46 46 1 2 5 =100
(3/18-19/04) 53 38 2 2 5 =100
c. Terrorism and
homeland security
Current Total 60 32 2 2 4 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 48 43 2 2 5 =100
(3/18-19/04) 56 35 2 1 6 =100
d. Health care,
including Medicare
Current Total 43 45 2 2 8 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 32 55 2 3 8 =100
(3/18-19/04) 37 53 1 2 7 =100
e. Education
Current Total 48 42 2 2 6 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 40 48 2 2 8 =100
(3/18-19/04) 43 46 2 2 7 =100
f. Taxes
Current Total 52 38 1 2 7 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 42 48 1 3 6 =100
(3/18-19/04) 45 44 1 3 7 =100
g. American jobs and
foreign
competition
Current Total 45 44 1 3 7 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 36 53 1 2 8 =100
(3/18-19/04) 39 50 1 3 7 =100
h. Foreign policy in
general
Current Total 54 38 2 1 5 =100
Trend
(7/29-30/04) 44 49 1 2 4 =100
i. The environment
Current Total 36 50 2 2 10 =100
Trend
(7/29-30/04) 29 59 2 2 8 =100
j. Gay marriage
Current Total 44 36 1 6 13 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 46 33 1 5 15 =100
(2/5-6/04) 38 29 2 5 26 =100
Note: Trend results for item j are based on slightly different question
wording: "Which presidential candidate comes closer to reflecting your
own views on the issue of gay marriage?"
Questions 12 and 13 were asked in random order
12. Has what you've seen or heard about George W. Bush's military
service record in the National Guard at the time of the Vietnam War made
you more likely or less likely to vote for him in November, or has it not
had much effect either way?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Current Military HH Non-Military HH 7/29-30/04
5 More likely 6 5 5
17 Less likely 16 18 22
75 Not much effect 75 74 70
1 Haven't heard about
/Not aware of (VOL.) 1 1 2
2 Don't know 2 2 1
100 100 100 100
13. Has what you've seen or heard about John Kerry's military service
record in the Vietnam War made you more likely or less likely to vote for
him in November, or has it not had much effect either way?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Current Military HH Non-Military HH 7/29-30/04
15 More likely 15 16 27
19 Less likely 26 15 15
62 Not much effect 55 66 55
2 Haven't heard about
/Not aware of (VOL.) 1 2 1
2 Don't know 3 1 2
100 100 100 100
14a. Have you seen or heard about the recent TV Ads sponsored by a
veterans' group questioning John Kerry's military service record in
Vietnam?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
75 Yes, seen or heard about the ads
24 No
1 Don't know
100
14b. From what you've seen or heard, do you think these ads are generally
accurate in what they say about Kerry's military service in Vietnam,
or are misleading or distorted?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Current Military HH Non-Military HH
21 Generally accurate 26 19
39 Misleading or distorted 36 40
25 Not aware of ads 21 27
15 Don't know 17 14
100 100 100
14c. Do you think the Bush-Cheney campaign is behind these anti-Kerry
ads, or that the ads were produced independently, without the Bush-
Cheney campaign's involvement?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Current Military HH Non-Military HH
27 Bush-Cheney campaign
behind ads 24 30
38 Produced independently 46 34
26 Not aware of ads 21 27
9 Don't know 9 9
100 100 100
15. On another subject ... All in all, do you think George W. Bush's
economic and tax policies have done more to help or hurt economic
conditions in this country - or haven't had much effect either way?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Current 7/29-30/04
38 Help 33
38 Hurt 43
19 Not much effect 20
5 Don't know 4
100 100
16. From what you know now, do you think the United States did the right
thing in taking military action against Iraq last year, or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes No DK
Current Total 55 38 7 =100
Republicans 87 11 2 =100
Democrats 29 61 10 =100
Independents 46 48 6 =100
Trends
(5/13-14/04) 51 43 6 =100
(4/8-9/04) 57 39 4 =100
(3/25-26/04) 55 41 4 =100
(3/18-19/04) 57 37 6 =100
(1/29-30/04) 55 39 6 =100
(12/18-19/03) 62 32 6 =100
(11/6-7/03) 55 38 7 =100
(10/23-24/03) 59 34 7 =100
(10/9-10/03) 56 37 7 =100
(9/11-12/03) 64 31 5 =100
(8/21-22/03) 61 33 6 =100
(7/24-25/03) 68 28 4 =100
Note: Trend results are based on total sample.
17. In general, do you think going to war with Iraq has made Americans
safer from terrorism, or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes No DK
Current Total 45 50 5 =100
Republicans 75 20 5 =100
Democrats 21 76 3 =100
Independents 38 57 5 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 38 57 5 =100
(1/22-23/04) 44 53 3 =100
18. Do you think Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq was DIRECTLY involved
in planning, financing, or carrying out the terrorist attacks of
September 11th, 2001, or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes No DK
Current Total 42 44 14 =100
Republicans 55 32 13 =100
Democrats 32 54 14 =100
Independents 37 48 15 =100
Trends
(1/29-30/04) 49 39 12 =100
(9/18-19/03) 47 37 16 =100
Note: Trend results are based on total sample.
19. How much, if any, of the Republican Convention did you watch on TV
this week ... (READ)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
None Very little Some A great DK
of it of it deal
Current Total 32 28 24 16 * =100
Trends
2004 Democratic
Convention 25 26 29 19 1 =100
2000 Republican
Convention 31 28 26 15 * =100
2000 Democratic
Convention 25 27 28 18 2 =100
1996 Republican
Convention 27 29 26 17 1 =100
1992 Republican
Convention 16 29 33 22 0 =100
1988 Republican
Convention 17 26 27 30 * =100
Note: 1988 trend from Gallup.
20. From what you saw or heard about this week's Republican Convention,
is your opinion of the Republican Party more favorable or less
favorable?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
More Less No change Didn't follow conv. DK
Current Total 36 27 23 12 2 =100
Republicans 66 3 23 7 1 =100
Democrats 13 52 18 14 3 =100
Independents 29 27 29 13 2 =100
Trends
2004 Democratic
Convention 41 24 22 9 4 =100
2000 Republican
Convention 49 22 18 5 6 =100
2000 Democratic
Convention 43 20 21 10 6 =100
1996 Republican
Convention 40 27 22 8 3 =100
1992 Republican
Convention 35 41 18 4 2 =100
1988 Republican
Convention 43 26 20 3 8 =100
Note: 1988 trend from Gallup
21. Did you happen to watch all or part of George W. Bush's acceptance
speech last night on live television?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS INTERVIEWED ON FRIDAY
Yes No DK
Current Total 45 53 2 =100
Trends
2004 - Kerry speech 51 49 * =100
2000 - Bush speech 49 50 1 =100
2000 - Gore speech 53 45 2 =100
1996 - Dole speech 46 54 * =100
22. From what you saw or heard about George W. Bush's acceptance speech,
is your opinion of Bush more favorable or less favorable?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS INTERVIEWED ON FRIDAY
More Less No change Didn't follow DK
Current Total 37 18 22 22 1 =100
Republicans 61 2 17 18 2 =100
Democrats 10 37 23 28 2 =100
Independents 35 17 26 20 2 =100
Trends
2004 - Kerry speech 43 17 22 15 3 =100
2000 - Bush speech 47 11 18 18 6 =100
2000 - Gore speech 45 20 20 9 6 =100
1996 - Dole speech 35 21 22 17 5 =100
1992 - GHW Bush speech 39 35 16 7 3 =100
23a. Do you think the Republican Party is more conservative than the
image it presented at this week's convention, OR that the party is
NOT more conservative than the image it presented?
23b. Would you say the party is A LOT more conservative or ONLY somewhat
more conservative?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
GOP Ideology vs. Image Presented
Current 2000 1996
18 A lot more conservative 20 16
21 Somewhat more conservative 27 26
30 Not more conservative 30 33
31 Didn't follow/Don't know 23 25
100 100 100
24. Please tell me if each of the following things that happened at the
convention this week makes you more likely or less likely to vote
for Bush and Cheney in November, or if it doesn't make much
difference either way. (First,) what about...(INSERT-READ AND
RANDOMIZE) (Does this make you more likely or less likely to vote
for Bush and Cheney, or does it not make much difference either
way?)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
More Less No diff. Not aware DK
a. Arizona Senator John
McCain's speech on
Monday
Current Total 20 6 37 34 3 =100
Trend
2000 - McCain speech
and endorsement 32 13 36 14 5 =100
b. Former New York City
Mayor Rudy Giuliani's
speech on Monday
Current Total 24 8 33 32 3 =100
c. Laura Bush's speech on
Tuesday
Current Total 25 7 36 30 2 =100
Trends
2004 - Teresa Heinz Kerry
speech 21 15 33 29 2 =100
2000 - Laura Bush speech 29 10 36 19 6 =100
d. California Governor
Arnold Schwarzenegger's
speech on Tuesday
Current Total 22 10 38 27 3 =100
e. The keynote speech by
U.S. Senator Zell
Miller, Democrat from
Georgia, on Wednesday
Current Total 21 14 30 31 4 =100
Republicans 39 6 27 25 3 =100
Democrats 7 23 34 31 5 =100
Independents 16 13 31 37 3 =100
Trend
2004 - Barack Obama DNC
keynote speech 24 5 34 35 2 =100
f. Vice president Dick
Cheney's acceptance
speech on Wednesday
Current Total 19 15 34 29 3 =100
Trends
2004 - Edwards speech 31 7 33 27 2 =100
2000 - Cheney speech 32 13 34 15 6 =100
ITEM G ASKED OF THOSE
INTERVIEWED ON FRIDAY
g. George W. Bush's
acceptance speech
on Thursday
Current Total 30 10 27 30 3 =100
Republicans 52 1 22 22 3 =100
Democrats 9 23 32 32 4 =100
Independents 26 8 27 36 3 =100
Trends
2004 - Kerry speech 32 8 31 28 1 =100
2000 - Bush speech 37 7 30 21 5 =100
2000 - Gore speech 40 11 21 24 4 =100
25. Looking ahead to the next presidential campaign, please tell me
which, if any, of the following Republicans you would like to see
run for president in 2008. (First,) what about...(INSERT-READ AND
RANDOMIZE) (Would you like him to run in 2008, or not?)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes No DK
a. John McCain
Current Total 48 36 16 =100
Republicans 47 39 14 =100
b. Rudy Giuliani
Current Total 50 37 13 =100
Republicans 65 24 11 =100
c. Senate Majority leader Bill Frist
Current Total 11 55 34 =100
Republicans 19 47 34 =100
d. Florida Governor Jeb Bush
Current Total 15 66 19 =100
Republicans 28 49 23 =100
e. New York Governor George Pataki
Current Total 15 55 30 =100
Republicans 13 52 35 =100
f. Arnold Schwarzenegger, if the
Constitution were changed to
allow foreign-born U.S. citizens
to run
Current Total 22 66 12 =100
Republicans 30 57 13 =100
END OF INTERVIEW. THANK RESPONDENT: That completes the interview. Thank
you very much for your cooperation.
SOURCE Newsweek
Web Site:
http://www.newsweek.msnbc.com
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