ungggh aaaaghhung aaarrrgghgnnnng

[Helm]

How much money are the Chinese borrowing internationally in order to make their government and economy work???

I'm not sure I understand the question: isn't it the case that in geopolitics generally everybody owes to everybody and everybody is lending to everybody? I don't think that's a good way to measure the economic prosperity of a country. Especially since China is now open to a "controlled" ( cannot stress the quotation marks more ) free market, the concepts of debt and profit complicate more

[kellychaos]

It's not like the inevitable fall of communism and the eventual opening of China as an open market wasn't realized 30+ years ago. It's one of the few things for which I give Nixon credit. If his plans to trade with the Chinese would have been followed up with subtle machinations/manipulations when the Chinese were new to the world market and still developing, perhaps we wouldn't be in our present predicament. Thank you, Cold War.

[KevinTheOmnivore]

Originally Posted by Helm

I'm not sure I understand the question: isn't it the case that in geopolitics generally everybody owes to everybody and everybody is lending to everybody? I don't think that's a good way to measure the economic prosperity of a country.

I didn't ask for understanding, I asked for an answer.

I'm not arguing that their debt means anything, because I don't even know what it's like in the first place. I'm just curious, because Blanco seems pretty certain that we are the undisputed pokemon (I prefer that word over hegemon), and I was just wondering if the other prospective pokemon were in such heavy debt as we are (I don't belive they are).

Especially since China is now open to a "controlled" ( cannot stress the quotation marks more ) free market, the concepts of debt and profit complicate more

I agree, but in whose favor do things complicate?

[El Blanco]

If that were clear, it wouldn't be so complicated, now would it?

[Helm]

When I said I didn't understand I was just stressing that It's confusing how radically different analyses of geopolitics can be, yet all be valid to degrees. My views on the subject are of the layman. I'm just following on the little I read in the papers so I'm hesitant to have a firm opinion unless I do extensive studying.

Generally though, I believe that from a level and above, geopolitical superiority is much less to do with general "our-currency-is-strong!" economic prosperity and more to do with veiled but always there threat of military might. Since geopolitical power is considered an end in itself, I think that is the most direct way to underline superiority is war and the threat of war. This also gives a realistic explaination on why the US, although the sole remaining superpower, still feels the need to underline it's military muscle regularly, instead of being content on largely controlling the world market, which I believe your country is capable of. My opinion is largely anti-marxist ( as in not materialistic, since I don't actually focus on money and the aquiring of as the crux of the situation) and more focusing on the exertion of power as the prime need of communities that are constantly at odds. The US is our current alpha male in a despondent pack of treacherous wolves that is the collection of nations on the earth. It has to bear it's teeth, regardless of wealth, regardless of prosperity. These things are not enough unless you can take DOWN whoever even thinks or you think they think of challenging your power. A pretty atavistic deal, in this light.

To answer your question and to open that discussion

I agree, but in whose favor do things complicate?

I guess China's superiority or inferiority in terms of market has very little to do with if it's threatening or not. Just by existing, and by growing, it's a threat to the US. This is what I read behind Italian's posts in this thread, that constant fear of opposition, an urge to preemptively destroy a potential threat. Power for Security, to quench the primordial need of safety.

[KevinTheOmnivore]

Originally Posted by El Blanco

If that were clear, it wouldn't be so complicated, now would it?

I thought you had the answers.

[ItalianStereotype]

Originally Posted by El Blanco

They are trying to keep face. Let them blow wind. Our Ofio class subs are more than enough to make sure its just shit talking.

they're doing more than trying to keep face. if they wanted to keep face and not further marginalize themselves, they would reign in these mouthpieces who, in effect, speak for the government. that's not limited to just some extremist general either, this has been an ongoing problem.

and if we're going to make sure that they're just talking shit, I say let's be flashy about it. send a Nimitz carrier group.

They are eyeing Taiwan and Japan for their economic infrastructures. Wiping the cities off the face of the Earth kind of puts a dent in that. Its a much better idea to send in troops that can actually occupy the centers.

it's dangerous to assume that they won't strike out of nationalist pride. Taiwan is nothing more than a rebellious province to them, I don't doubt that they'd strike just to cow them. besides, they tend to threaten Taiwanese and U.S. military forces with missile strikes more than the cities. if we were to intervene, however, I have no doubt it would escalate far beyond that.

Pakistan is currently both sides, like they and India did during the Cold War.

this sounds reasonable. however, I can see how their favor can easily tip towards China. our relationship with India, our involvement in the war on terror, China providing technological and economic benefits are all working against us.

S
any action against south korea is going to involve north korea as well. now, the two militaries combined are more than enough to overwhelm our forces in the area, especially since we are otherwise occupied elsewhere. I'm pretty sure the Chinese would be willing to support their Korean allies if a war were to ever occur, as our response would be limited.

You'd be surprise just how effective a few B2s can be. Again, we wouldn't have to directly engage them. I also think you're overestimating just how happy the PRC is with Kim Jong Il. They've yanked the leash on him several times when he ran his mouth too much.

As cynical about them as I am, even I have to hope they'd be more active in that. If they let china run through a sovereign nation simply because they like the trade relationship, the orginaztion is sunk at that exact moment

what do you think the Security Council would have to say? Russia and China are both permanent members. besides, what did the UN do during, say, the Darfur massacres? weren't French economic interests involved there?

You are seriously over estimating that relationship.

not as much as you might think. a common enemy and a common goal will do a lot to unite even the most ardent opponents. weapons treaties, economic agreements, unified anti-US sentiments, really, I think you underestimate that relationship.

I'd say Western Europe and the United States has just as much a chance to be a powerful influence in Russia as China.

agreed, but right now it's looking more like Russia is going to slide back into authoritarianism and into China's arms. like gay romance. I've personally written Russia off, but if we can continue to be the greatest economic and political influence on the Russians, I'll be quite happy.

Yes, but little by little, the human rights are increasing.

how so? one of the greatest backwards steps happened less than twenty years ago. I know twenty years is a long time for us, but not so much so for a country with little political evolution. and even more recently we see things like the crackdown on Falun Gong. economic freedom and human rights are definitely related, but not enough to make me think that China is becoming progressive.

The can say it all they want. They realize it just isn't going to happen.

they have a rapidly modernizing and absolutely bloated military, a huge working class, and are in an upward trend in education, especially in science and math. we have some serious problems that we need to fix if we want to stay on top. I'm not saying that the Chinese are in ANY position right now to be preeminent country in the world, but they WILL be in a position to supplant us if we're not careful.

I don't think you remember our doctrine from the Cold War. Mutually Assured Destruction. I have no idea how being turned into a radioactive wasteland suits them.

I remember it quite well, actually. I have no idea how being turned into a radioactive wasteland would suit them, but they balk at the idea. they think that they could survive such an exchange and that we couldn't. China is like the Sicilian in the Princess Bride. they think they've outsmarted us.

Just how would they escape unscathed?

I'm not saying they would, but they're willing to take it that far.

An enemy they are going to have to coexist with. I'm not saying roll over and take their shit, but you gotta realize that a fight with them over some hardliner blowing wind just isn't to anyone's advantage.

it's not just one hardliner though. it's pretty obvious that China is aggressively positioning themselves to become THE power in Asia, and most likely they'll continue to try for world dominance. right now they're doing it quietly; bait with money, threaten with violence, play it off politically, etcetera, but I have no doubt that they'll become more belligerent as they grow stronger.

Originally Posted by Helm

I guess China's superiority or inferiority in terms of market has very little to do with if it's threatening or not. Just by existing, and by growing, it's a threat to the US. This is what I read behind Italian's posts in this thread, that constant fear of opposition, an urge to preemptively destroy a potential threat. Power for Security, to quench the primordial need of safety.

interesting.

I don't really want to see China destroyed, but I do want to see the US maintain her position as the world's most powerful nation. in fact, I want to incorporate other nations like Canada, the UK, etc. into, not necessarily the US, but into a relationship different than any that currently exist. China is a threat to the current order or the world, a country that's fairly morally and ethically bankrupt. one that won't shy away from murdering millions and destroying the standard of living for countless others to acheive their goals.

this probably wasn't very clear, but I'm on my way out the door. I'll probably clarify later.

[theapportioner]

Barring catastrophe, China (and India) will eventually eclipse the United States as economic powerhouses. Too much human capital there. I doubt the PRC will blow it on foolhardy aggression.

[theapportioner]

I don't really want to see China destroyed, but I do want to see the US maintain her position as the world's most powerful nation. in fact, I want to incorporate other nations like Canada, the UK, etc. into, not necessarily the US, but into a relationship different than any that currently exist. China is a threat to the current order or the world, a country that's fairly morally and ethically bankrupt. one that won't shy away from murdering millions and destroying the standard of living for countless others to acheive their goals.

A page from "The Clash of Civilizations"?

[theapportioner]

The Economist has an interesting piece on the Chinese economy (seems like they have one every week these days) - http://www.economist.com/world/asia/...ory_id=4221685

[Nom]

Let’s see – Taiwan is basically, strategically a US economic and political foothold right outside China’s border. Anyone remember the Cuban missile crisis? We didn’t even let Russia get close enough to us to breathe down our necks; but we have Taiwan wrapped around our little finger, and China has no right to be pissed? OK.

[soundtest]

*BANGS GONG*

China will become a superpower and eventually (50 years? 100?) will surpass the US. This is inevitable. As important as their booming economy is their unity. One common goal and one common people. The huge political divide in the US is a virus that is eating it away from the inside. (North) Americans are fat, lazy, stupid, and complacent. The Chinese laugh at the fact that North Americans think they envy or want to be like us! Reality TV. It's a metaphor.

China has gone through generations of shit and suffering, and its people now see a light at the end of the tunnel. This motivates them even more and nothing will stop them. The US had its peak and its getting time to step aside or be pushed aside. No empire can last forever.

China will never let go of Taiwan - it can't. Its strategic geographic location alone is far too important to China's future. Instead, China will continue to wait patiently for 'peaceful reunification'. It will strike only if it is attacked by Taiwan (an 'internal' problem) or if there is outside (US) interference. Then again, one can only wonder how patient Beijing can be... Taiwan will not be getting a better offer than 'one country, two systems'.

[Nom]

Indeed, soundtest. Well said, thank you.

[El Blanco]

Originally Posted by soundtest

*BANGS GONG*

China will become a superpower and eventually (50 years? 100?) will surpass the US. This is inevitable.

Likely. Nothing is inevitable. A lot can happen over a century. What if the Cantonese become nationalistic? What if Tibet's freedom becomes a major issue in the UN?


What about India and Russia's role in all this. One is just emerging as a major economic power. The other is spiraling into anarchy.

As important as their booming economy is their unity. One common goal and one common people.

Ya, thats the official government position

The huge political divide in the US is a virus that is eating it away from the inside.

Dude, we've gove through two constitutions, a full blown Civil War and a whole bunch of armed rebellions. No matter what Rush Limbaugh and Michael Moore want us to believe, we'll weather this.

(North) Americans are fat, lazy, stupid, and complacent.

Hey, buddy, feel free to go fuck yourself.

The Chinese laugh at the fact that North Americans think they envy or want to be like us! Reality TV. It's a metaphor.

I don't get it? They buy our television shows, our music, our movies and a whole other shitload of parts of our pop culture. There's obvously something there.

China has gone through generations of shit and suffering, and its people now see a light at the end of the tunnel.

Assuming they'll know what to do when they get there.

This motivates them even more and nothing will stop them. The US had its peak and its getting time to step aside or be pushed aside. No empire can last forever.

I don't hear Brumhilda warming up quite yet. Remember, the US is different from the vast majority of superpowers that have existed. Our neighbors are our best friends and trading partners, we are damn near impossible to invade, and we can dominate another nation without firing a shot. To say the time is up is way too premature.

China will never let go of Taiwan - it can't. Its strategic geographic location alone is far too important to China's future.

Thats why the US has that bargaining chip.

Instead, China will continue to wait patiently for 'peaceful reunification'. It will strike only if it is attacked by Taiwan (an 'internal' problem) or if there is outside (US) interference.

Not likely

Then again, one can only wonder how patient Beijing can be... Taiwan will not be getting a better offer than 'one country, two systems'.

They'll be patient.

If this were the Apollo, there would be a clown with a hook right about now.

[soundtest]

Replying in this manner gets very tedious very quickly. After this you're on your own unless you condense things a bit.

Originally Posted by El Blanco

Likely. Nothing is inevitable. A lot can happen over a century. What if the Cantonese become nationalistic? What if Tibet's freedom becomes a major issue in the UN?

A lot can happen. Cantonese becoming nationalistic? They already are. HK people consider themselves different and even more civilized than Mainland Chinese. Those in power in HK are in Beijing's back pocket. Tibet's freedom aready was a big issue - over and done. People are tired of that and Lollapalooza is over.

What about India and Russia's role in all this. One is just emerging as a major economic power. The other is spiraling into anarchy.

This isn't about India or Russia. What about Canada's role? Who cares?

Ya, thats the official government position

Go to China and speak with the locals. The majority of them feel exactly this way. Many Chinese are either completely apathetic or oblivious to what goes on in their Government. They don't give a rat's ass about politics. Ask about China's future however and watch their eyes beam. "This century belongs to China."

Dude, we've gove through two constitutions, a full blown Civil War and a whole bunch of armed rebellions. No matter what Rush Limbaugh and Michael Moore want us to believe, we'll weather this.

Perhaps. Regardless, you're not unified and those who are rest on their laurels.

Hey, buddy, feel free to go fuck yourself.

Struck a nerve, huh?

I don't get it? They buy our television shows, our music, our movies and a whole other shitload of parts of our pop culture. There's obvously something there.

I think you mean pirate your media and pop culture. The kids think it's cool. But they still think they're better than you.

Assuming they'll know what to do when they get there.

What? I can't tell if this is irony, arrogance, or ignorance. Please advise.

I don't hear Brumhilda warming up quite yet. Remember, the US is different from the vast majority of superpowers that have existed. Our neighbors are our best friends and trading partners, we are damn near impossible to invade, and we can dominate another nation without firing a shot. To say the time is up is way too premature.

I didn't say it's up. I said in 50-100 years it will be up.

Thats why the US has that bargaining chip.

Then be prepared to gamble.

Not likely

umm ok

They'll be patient.

Perhaps. China is all about patience. They know they will conquer. It's their destiny.

If this were the Apollo, there would be a clown with a hook right about now.

Indeed! Thank heavens you were up next to save the show with that one!