Quote:
Originally Posted by derrida
Quote:
Originally Posted by KevinTheOmnivore
Was the policy of coddling him successful before?
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NK has been wanting nukes since the 80's.
In 1994, we managed to persuade them to halt their nuclear program. We had cameras in their reactors, IAEA seals on the hatches, and real, live inspectors in the country. Kim Jong Il was still a crazy dictator, but at least he wasn't going to be a crazy dictator with nukes any time soon.
In January 2002, Bush made his "Axis of Evil" speech. North Korea started spreading rumors about a "secret nuclear program" later that year. Bush responds by cutting off all aid, terminating our end of the 1994 deal. By the end of that year, North Korea has expelled the IAEA inspectors, turned off the cameras, and reactivated their reactors.
March 2003, the US invades Iraq, the sole member of the "Axis of Evil" that didn't have a nuclear program at the time. That summer, NK begins test-firing missiles and drops all nuclear nonproliferation treaties. The US response is more or less nonexistent, refusing to even come to the bargaining table without massive concessions by NK.
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Derrida, your timeline works if you completely exclude A.Q. Khan. You're forgetting that Khan made over a dozen trips to N. Korea
after the 1994 arrangement. He provided them with designs, material, and a network of resources. Khan claims to have even witnessed
three plutonium devices on one of his later trips to Pyongyang.
Also, in 2003 the German government intercepted over 100 aluminum tubes used for creating centrifuges.
So, it makes sense to you that N. Korea halts proliferation in 1994, started again in 2002 after their feelings were hurt, and then presto! In three years they have nuclear weapons (remember, they announced in 2005). DOn't get me wrong, I just don't think I'd give a despot the benefit of the doubt like that.
I'm a fan of carrot & stick policy, too. But to get back to my point, maybe giving into the petulant demands of a dictator is how we find ourselves in these spots. N. Korea relies almost entirely on foreign aid. If they don't throw fits like this, they might be forced to open up and rely on their human resources and actually produce stuff. It's kind of hard to maintain a dictatorship once you open up like that.
I don't believe N. Korea played nice from 1994-2002. I think we're seeing the possible results of what happens when you stop capitulating to a dictator and rotten regimes. China is openly throwing regime change on the table, so it's not like they're coddling either.