Features

El Blanco · #1

In another thread, Max suggested that the US will soon no longer be a superpower and could be replaced by Russia, China, or India. Now, in his old age, I think Max has become somewhat pessimistic. I think that it is entirely possible that the US soon won't be the sole superpower, but our run as leader in the West is far from over. It will end someday, just not soon.

China has no navy. They have a few fishing boats with guns, but they do not have the ability to move their forces and project power. India is pretty much the same. Actually, India's navy is a little better, but it is still centered around a few diesel fueled aircraft carriers.

One of the main reasons the US has been such a dominate world power is because we can have boots on the ground in any corner of the globe in around 8 hours. If you want economic and political power, you have to project military power.

China has the world's largest air force by far (even if it more quantity than quality) and they have all those ICBMs. However, those are purely for destruction. You can't occupy territory or hold a position with aircraft and missiles. And an ICBM is really hard to reposition.

Another things is that the countries we border are our biggest trading partners and don't have grudges with us that go back millennia. China, India and Russia have that problem.

I'm not saying that China and India can't be superpowers, I'm saying they are going to do it by playing ball with us.

Russia, that is just a whole other train wreck. They have the material resources to be far more powerful than the old USSR, but they have never gotten their act together. They never went through the processes and growing pains that other countries went through on their way to being superpowers and it killed them.

They never had their version of the ages of Exploration, Enlightenment and Industrial Revolution. They went from feudalism to a fully mechanized society almost overnight. They saw all the cool stuff other places had and got them. They just forgot to get rid of the dictators and such. China kind of did the same thing but it wasn't as dramatic and sudden as the Russians. Also, China actually had their act together and experience as a superpower prior to the 20th Century.

Also, I think a lot of the political strife we are currently facing in this country is being over exaggerated in the face of some of the other things we've faced in our short history. We are as free a society as we've ever been, we are still very strong economically, our military is actually still the best in the world (despite the perception some have of us losing in Iraq), and the quality of life here is damn good. We are far short of perfect and can improve on a lot of things, but its not really that bleak here.

Rongi · #2

What I want to know is, what would it mean if we were no longer THE super power? How would it affect us?

mburbank · #3

Well reasoned, and there's nothing you've said I disagree with overmuch.

I think however, that we've bungled this period of being the only super power so badly that it will be quite some time (if ever again) before we regain anything like our pre Iraq pre W footing.

We are perilously close to the point we can't put boots on the ground in 8 hours, not because we don't have the capability but because we've worn the soldiers down to nothing. We've squandered what credability we've had to the point where when America says something like Iran is fueling the chaos in Iraq (which they may well be) even our allies have to take the time to think about if it's true or just a lot of conveniently stovepiped crap.

I don't honestly think we're over the way England was over after WWII. We'll be a player for a long time to come. But the days of Big Daddy America are coming to a close I think. For a long time the rest of the world had to be with us or with Russia. For a few short years it was Our way or no way. It's going to be a whole different ball game.

Sethomas · #4

I think once the EU will come to fruition as a confederacy, something that would come with little surprise in the next 15-30 years in my guesstimation, the US will actually be dwarfed. I love my country, but I love my world more and as such it wouldn't break my heart to see the US be lose some voice in the UN while seeing a growth in the UN's ability to enforce its ideals. I've always thought that there would be some moment of humility when we're hit with the realization that the world stage isn't (nor should be) dominated by a single actor. I speak from regret and not masochistic self-Schaddenfreude that our war with Iraq, especially if undertaken by its somewhat clandestine ideology, would be this font of humility. However, it strikes me that this in itself wouldn't be enough, but perhaps if the US were to default on its loans (something that scares the shit outta me) then it'd come.

My estimation is that within the next sixty years, the US will retain the things that make it wonderful without building upon them proportionally with the rest of the world. Hence, we'll be a large power among many large powers.

Preechr · #5

Quote:

Originally Posted by FartinMowler

I thought a Super Power meant that they had the backing of many countries. I can go ask some Americans that have run from your country if you want?

Of course you would... That way, Canada has a chance at being called a SuperPower.

Preechr · #6

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rongi

What I want to know is, what would it mean if we were no longer THE super power? How would it affect us?

It will make us better. Competition does that, y'know. As it stands, there is no incentive for our government to anything differently. China's economy should surpass our own within about 10-15 years. Brazil's leading the G22 into a bloc that might eliminate the g8 structure altogether, since the EU has pretty much corrupted that body's ability to get things done.

As long as we remain the sole world leader, we will continue to slide away from the concept of "land of the free, home of the brave." As it is now, we are no longer anything close to that. With global competition, there is a chance we'll find our way again.

Go Other Countries!!!