Aboard the Russian flight bound for Volgograd which crashed Tuesday night near Tulin were five members of the Russian Jewish Communities Federation. An Israeli, David Cohen from Bat Yam, also lost his life. Russian security heads believe al Qaeda behind crash of two Russian planes after takeoff from Moscow Tuesday night. Both pilots sent hijack signals before their planes disappeared off radar screens killing all 89 people aboard.
Russian airports and air force on emergency alert. There were two black boxes found at crash sites south of Moscow - near Bushelaki 180 km S. of Moscow in Tula region and near Rostov-on-Don. They were bound for Volgograd and Black Sea resort of Sochi, where Putin on holiday. The second plane exploded and broke up in mid-air. Terror attack believed to be connected with Sunday's presidential elections in Chechnya.
http://web2.stratfor.com/news/2004TE...99990056&pid=B
Russian Crashes: Chechen Attack?
Aug 25, 2004 1203 GMT
Investigations are continuing into the causes of two nearly simultaneous airline crashes in Russia on Aug. 24, which killed 89 people. Though Russian officials say their main line of investigation concerns “illegal interference in the operation of civil aviation or abuse of aircraft operation rules”—shorthand for mechanical failure or sabotage—and that no signs of terrorism have been found, several factors do point squarely to the probability of terrorism.
And officials in Moscow concur: The government also has all but decided that the planes were brought down by terrorists, Russian intelligence sources have told Stratfor.
Though evidence is still being gathered (an effort in which the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board has offered to assist), the initial explanation proffered by Russian investigators—that both crashes stemmed from mechanical failure—seems highly illogical, in light of other facts. For one thing, the crashes involved two different aircraft models, a Tu-134 and Tu-154, operated by separate airlines (Sibir and Volga Avia-Express). Mechanical failure or sabotage would be a much more believable scenario if the aircraft were the same type or only one airline was involved.
Further complicating matters, the doomed planes, which both were flying from Domodedovo International Airport in southern Moscow, were en route to separate destinations. Their departure times were separated by more than 40 minutes -- 9:35 p.m. for the Tu-154, headed for the city of Sochi; 10:15 p.m. for the Tu-134, en route to Volgograd—yet they crashed or exploded within four minutes of each other, just before 11 p.m. local time.
The timing and witness accounts point to the likelihood that explosives were used in both crashes. Witnesses reported seeing the Sochi-bound aircraft (which went down near the town of Tula, east of Moscow) explode in mid-air, accounts that have been further borne out by debris patterns. Moreover, intelligence sources have confirmed to Stratfor that Russian air traffic controllers received a “kidnap” signal that was pressed aboard the second plane, just before the blast.
On a final note, the fatal flights departed from Domodedovo only hours after another explosion had been reported in Moscow—this one at a bus stop. Four people were wounded in that blast, which occurred at 7:40 p.m. and involved an improvised explosive device that had been attached to a street lamp, about 14 miles north of the airport. It is not clear whether there is a link to the plane crashes—Russian police initially assumed that attack was related to organized crime— but the bus stop is on a highway leading to Domodedovo, and authorities now are investigating whether the first blast might have been a diversionary tactic meant to draw attention and security forces away from the airport.
Under any circumstances, given the political environment in Russia, the timing of the incidents and the track record of Russian security, it is not difficult to argue the case for terrorism. Violence by Chechen separatists has not abated in either Chechnya or Russia proper, and Russian security forces have been on the alert for new attacks as the breakaway region prepares for elections (needed to replace assassinated Chechen President Akhmed Kadyrov) on Aug. 29.
Furthermore, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a trip to Chechnya and to Sochi on the day of the crashes—suggesting that the city itself might have been a target for militants or, at the very least, that someone wanted to send a political message to Putin. Volgograd, the other destination city, is home to a nuclear power plant—yet another potential target for militants. It is not impossible that the aircraft could have been hijacked, but given the mid-air explosion a conventional hijacking seems unlikely.
In the Tula crash, the aircraft’s tail section was found separated from the rest of the plane and burning; the amount of explosives needed for such a blast would be difficult for a hijacker to carry without drawing attention. It is possible that hijackers might have planned to take over the planes and turn them into guided missiles, as in the Sept. 11 attacks, but Tupolev aircraft are often equipped with re-enforced armored cockpit doors—something that frustrated Chechen hijackers who took over a Russian plane in Saudi Arabia in March 2001.
In this scenario, it is possible that militants, thwarted by security system, reverted to a Plan B and simply blew the planes up instead. Again, the fact that the tail section was literally ripped from the plane argues against the odds of a single, heavily-laden militant being responsible, but it is conceivable that several operatives armed with explosives and placed strategically around the aircraft could have been involved—especially since both Tupolev models involved have rear engines.
In our view, however, the most likely scenario is that Chechens or other militants infiltrated ground crews working at Domodedovo airport and placed timed explosives aboard the planes. Admittedly, rather large amounts of explosives would be needed, but such tactics have been used before. One telling example is the killing of Kadyrov in May: In a highly sophisticated plot, Chechen operatives were hired on as laborers to help make repairs at the stadium where the assassination plot was planned, embedding explosives that later were missed or intentionally overlooked in security sweeps.
In Russia, repair workers or baggage handlers are seldom subjected to employee background checks, and even those that are conducted can be very spotty, as investigators in the Kadyrov case discovered. State inspection commissions have criticized the poor state of airport security in general as well: In this system, amateurs such as flight attendants are apt to be the ones checking passports, checked luggage might be randomly screened at best and standby passengers sometimes are allowed to board planes at the last minute, without being added to passenger lists. Under these circumstances, it certainly is feasible that ground crew workers could have placed some questionable cargo into the bellies of the planes.
If our assessment is correct, the airplane incidents could be a cautionary tale. Though airline security standards certainly are higher in many other countries, the events of Aug. 24 cannot be dismissed as a uniquely Russian tragedy: After all, it was only on Aug. 23 that the U.S. Transportation Security Administration began screening cargo—the commercial mail and packages that are carried separately from passenger luggage aboard practically all U.S. flights -- for safety.
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