Canadian Election results

[AChimp]

The Liberals squeaked out a minority government yesterday, and the Tories ended up failing quite miserably in all the areas that they hoped to succeed in.

Pretty interesting, especially after the polls said that the Conservatives were neck-and-neck with the Liberals the day before. In actuality, they received a SMALLER percentage of the popular vote, but still ended up with a few more seats because Liberal voters switched to the NDP in a lot of ridings, splitting the left vote. Just goes to show how useless polls really are.

The Tories got too cocky, really. People were e-mailing the CBC last night to say that they lied to the pollsters just so that the Tories would think they were winning and start showing their true colours towards the end of the election. And they did; one Torie candidate in Ontario stood outside an abortion clinic and said that abortions are no different than Arabs cutting off hostages' heads.

Touche.

When will they learn that social conservatism never flies in Canada? It also doesn't help when your party leader claims that the Maritimes are "defeatist," and they switch colours just to show you that they aren't.

This minority government will be good for the system, at least in the short term, I think. Even forming a coalition with the NDP, the Grits don't have enough seats for a majority, but the Bloc hates the Tories and won't go along with them unless it is in their best interests to do so.

Harper also hinted today that he might step down for being such a pussy.

[Baalzamon]

Everyone is denying a formal coalition, which is ok because nobody except the liberals will be eager for another election anytime soon.

the conservative problem is that their entire support base comes from alberta and western rural areas. The only support they have elsewhere are old PC ridings that remained loyal and ridings where people are slightly right leaning and very mad at the liberals.

If it wasnt for the bloc stealing quebec we would hav a majority.

as it stands, the Conservatives are still not a contender, and the NDP is vote splitting with the liberals, because all the leftists cant decide which of the two parties to vote for in order to stop the conservatives.

Untill the conservatives win over the old school PC base they are fucked, and they wont do that anytime soon because the conservative stronghold in the country, in terms of both leadership and party membership, is alberta, and all of their policies will reflect that.

The funny thing is that if all those old diehard PC people who are so pissed off about the merger would join the Conservative party they could actually have a say in their policy convention and hold enough clout to make it a moderate, electable party. Stupid fucking conservatives

The really shitty thing is that due to our non proportional representation system the conservatives and bloc got more seats than their popular vote should allow, making a seperatist party and a regional interest ingnorant party together make up almost half of parliament.

[Zebra 3]

Originally Posted by Baalzamon

If it wasnt for the bloc stealing quebec we would hav a majority.

The Bloc stole shit. The "sponsorship scandal" weighed much heavier in Quebec and the Bloc's Gilles Duceppe is an experienced, well liked politician who didn't fuck up once during the campaign. He even had at one time 8% support in BC.

[Baalzamon]

By "stealing" I mean taking 54 seats that could have gone to a real party instead. If an actual National party was the alternative to the liberals in quebec, we would probably see a majority of said party right now.

if the viable and accepted alternative in quebec had been the conservatives or NDP for example, and the bloc didnt exist, things would be much different now.

And yes Duceppe is a very smart man and a good politician. That doesnt change the fact that his party is separatist and regional.

So long as the bloc fucks up quebec all the time and the conservatives refuse to move their policies beyond rural Alberta, our country will not be able to have a stable 2 or 3 party system. Absent of strange happenings, a party needs quebec seats to win government. Only the liberals can do that right now.

Giving up 75 seats every election just isnt good politics no matter how you look at it.

All these regional parties do is leave the liberals free to take it all, because they are the only party with broad appeal, other than the NDP, which, though it has broad appeal, doesnt have enough appeal to form government.

The conservatives unfortunately are the only party that has a chance in hell of pulling this off, and would have long ago if they hadnt spent the better part of the last 10 years squabbling with each other.

Only by reverting to what the PC's where policy wise can the conservatives win government, and the alberta centred reform element of the party wont let that happen without a fight.

Face it, if reform had never happened we probably would have switched back to PC in the late 90's, and back to liberals by now.

Instead preston manning has fucked our system for years to come.

[Big Papa Goat]

Most of the conservative party isn't crazy and fundamentalist, just a few candidates.

[Royal Tenenbaum]

"and the NDP is vote splitting with the liberals, because all the leftists cant decide which of the two parties to vote for in order to stop the conservatives."

Ok, seriously, it's not happening. People that vote for the NDP are generally NDP supporters, and wouldn't vote for the Liberals either way. Yes, "technically" a vote is split, but it's not the "left" vote because the Liberal's are not left, and the majority of Canadians don't know this. The main issue with the left vote is all the dumb hippies that voted Green; apparently they got 4% of the popular vote, which is about half a million votes. All of those morons should have voted NDP, which has a better enviromental platform (well, better platforms for hippies all around), and would have increased the NDP by perhaps a seat or two and given them a nice 20% of the popular vote.

"When will they learn that social conservatism never flies in Canada?"

I'm hoping never, but, honestly, if they want to win they have to distance themselves from this. What Harper needs to do is, like Tony Blair did with the Labour Party in the UK, get rid of all the extremists in the party. All of the people that hate gays and protest abortion clinics will vote for the Conservatives even if they are moderate (ie. gay unions ok, abortion is a choice) because they will still reflect them on a majority of the views. Harper needs to cut out all of the psycho politicans in his party that hold the extreme views, and make the party's position on rights very clear. If he had just come out and said "We will support the right for abortions, we will not limit gay rights" he might have gotten a minority government.

Another issue was the fact the Conservatives started to talk like they could win, and that scared (rightfully, so) all the undecided voters away. They showed their true colours for a while, and thank god, Canadians were smart enough to do this.

I seriously expect this government to last no more than two years, merely because on average minorities do not last longer. Also, even though the Liberal's have a "strong" minority, they are so used to being King Shit that it might be really hard for them to bend to the demands of the other parties. They've already, in a way, told the NDP to stick it up their asses, so, to me, it doesn't really look all to promising.

"Face it, if reform had never happened we probably would have switched back to PC in the late 90's, and back to liberals by now.

Instead preston manning has fucked our system for years to come."

That's not true. The PCs were desimated, and it would have taken forever for them to get back in power (I'm talking like a hundred years). The way it went down was the only real way. There's no way the PCs would be a contender by now, let alone with the 99 seats the Conservatives have right now. Just look at how shitty they did in Ontario compared to what they expected would happen. And all the people running in Ontario were old PCers.

[Zebra 3]

Originally Posted by Big Papa Goat

Most of the conservative party isn't crazy and fundamentalist, just a few candidates.

- The party is still controlled by these right-wing fucktards.

[Baalzamon]

That's not true. The PCs were desimated, and it would have taken forever for them to get back in power (I'm talking like a hundred years). The way it went down was the only real way. There's no way the PCs would be a contender by now, let alone with the 99 seats the Conservatives have right now. Just look at how shitty they did in Ontario compared to what they expected would happen. And all the people running in Ontario were old PCers.

Yes the PC's got totally served, but that doesnt mean they wouldnt have recovered in time with new leadership.

What, are people supposed to vote liberal majority for 100 years?
I dont think so. Political parties can recover from anything given 10 years or so and new leadership.

So long as jackasses like preston manning dont stir shit up with populist regional parties that spend the next 20 years bitching about all the other regions rejecting their precious opinions.

The only reason the conservatives lost support is because they are not the PC's. They lost those Ontario votes they expected because people woke up and realized that this party is not the PC's of old.

An opposition in the form of a PC party with a moderate conservative at the head could have won this time if not sooner had it not been for Reform gaying it up and grabbing all that alberta support.

The Bloc doest help either, effectively making it impossible for anything but a liberal party to hold power

[Royal Tenenbaum]

"The only reason the conservatives lost support is because they are not the PC's. They lost those Ontario votes they expected because people woke up and realized that this party is not the PC's of old."

The problem is that it's a catch-22. They can't win Ontario if they aren't the PCs, yet they can't win Alberta if they aren't the PCs. And since they current Conservative love is coming from Alberta mainly, I really doubt they want to piss them off again by becoming an "Ontario" party.

[Baalzamon]

and thats why regional politics has fucked us over by fracturing what was once a viable alternaitve into a bunch of squabbling bitches.

How are we supposed to have a functioning democracy with only one party that is capable of forming government?

our only alternative to the liberals is a conservative minority, which would fall immediately if ever elected.

[Royal Tenenbaum]

Well, I don't consider any type of "conservative" a "viable alternative." But I guess we need to have at least a different type of government after 20 years or so. If people really do become tired of the Liberals then something will end up happening; either they will just accept the crazy Conservatives or they'll drift to the NDP. If the people want to keep voting in a Liberal government for the next 100 years then that's what the people want. They can vote for whatever the fuck they want, and we're stuck with it. If the Liberal's ever really really fuck up no one will vote for them.

[AChimp]

We don't need a functioning democracy. We're Canada; nothing ever changes. :P

[Baalzamon]

by "Viable alternative" I mean an alternative that will actually attract enough of a vote to make it possible to elect them under normal circumstances.

I dont like conservatives either, but its nice to have a party that stands a chance of getting a term once in a while without needing the liberals to completely self destruct first.

When a government gets too old it needs to be removed for a few years. Even if the people dont agree with the alternative 100% they will use that alternative to allow this to happen, so long as the alternative is at least palatable for a term or so.

As it stands the liberals basically have to screw up to the point of self destruction to lose.

Instead of doing good to win this government just has to not piss people off too much to stay in power. That is bad for the country. There is no competition so what motivates them really?

as long as they can avoid wasting too much money and not try and do anything controversial, effective or exciting, they can sit there and maintain their bland status quo indefinitely.

[Royal Tenenbaum]

That's why I say we get rid of the Senate. It does nothing, so why the fuck don't we just dissolve it? No Provincial government has an Upper House, and I don't see why we would even need one for the Federal government. Some people say we should elect our senate, but really, we don't even need one.

[AChimp]

Yes we do, otherwise the House will end up passing whatever shit it feels like left and right. The Senate is our form of checks and balances, albeit ineffectual.

It should be based on an American-style senate, with 6 year terms and 2 senators per province and 1 for each territory.

[Baalzamon]

Good idea, then a prime minister who was probably only elected by less than 40% of the people can do all sorts of cool shit whenever he wants without any opposition at all!

i'd feel much more comfortable about a conservaitve government if I knew that we had an elected and capable senate that could tell them to fuck off once in a while.

A senate ensures that fluke election victories by extremist conservative parties doesnt result in a massive reshaping of our country in a short period of time without any political opposition.

Right now we are lacking this,a nd it is not good for our country. Abolishing the senate would only make it worse.

[Royal Tenenbaum]

Does our senate do anything? NO! Is our country in the shitter because of out of control governments? NO! I rest my case.

[Baalzamon]

Our senate does look at bills and return them to the house for re-evaluation, and from time to time they have in fact exercised their veto power.

The reason they "dont do anything" is that nobody will let them do their job. Every time the senate tries to veto something people start bitching about them having no mandate from the people to do so.

fine abolish your senate.

When we have a conservative government cutting taxes and taking us to war without any empowered opposition, lets see how you feel then.

[Royal Tenenbaum]

There are certain things out there to protect us. Obviously, the courts for one. Also, we elect these governments, if any government takes it too fair they will not get re-elected. Our system has enough checks and balances for us to abolish the Upper House. Does our Provincial Legislature do a bunch of crazy shit without the protection of the Upper House? No, they don't.

[Baalzamon]

The provincial government does not have the power to do anything crazy, so they dont need it!

And the courts can be silenced with the notwithstanding claus

Sure the party wont get re-elected, but our prime minister also decides when the election is.

[Royal Tenenbaum]

Either way, all the important shit is entrenched in the Constitution. And, it's basically impossible to amend the Constitution; you have to have all of the provinces in agreement and a referendum. That's enough security for me.

[Baalzamon]

That still doesnt cover things like treaty signing or declariations of war.

No single body, and by extension single person should have the sole authority in a country.

And even when the senate doesnt outright veto things they still do a lot of other proofreading work with bills, and abolishing them would only leave the need to replace them with something else.

The least we could do is make them smaller, give them minor power, and have them be selected by the people.

[Guderian]

That's why I say we get rid of the Senate. It does nothing, so why the fuck don't we just dissolve it? No Provincial government has an Upper House, and I don't see why we would even need one for the Federal government. Some people say we should elect our senate, but really, we don't even need one.

Just out of curiosity, is the House of Lords in Britain the same way, ie ineffective? Our Parliament is supposed to be based on the British model, so if the upper house in London isn't having any problems (that I'm aware of, correct me I'm wrong), why does ours?

I really wish we had hereditary nobility here. No country is complete without an Earl of Cumberland.

As concerns the election: the polls indicated the Liberals and the Conservatives to be neck and neck, but at the time I suspected they might be very misleading. Conservative support has almost certainly risen in eastern Canada, in absolute terms, since the sponsorship scandal and the Alliance-PC merger. However, in order for the Tories to make a breakthrough in Ontario, they would need to be well ahead of the Liberals in the opinion polls - because they would need the support of a majority of Ontario voters in many ridings in order to win seats there. There was strong support in the West, and limited support in the East, but the Tories simply cannot form government unless they get strong support in the East, which would be reflected in the opinion polls by a large Conservative lead.

Incidentally, the only province in which a popular majority of voters backed the Tories was Alberta. Slightly under 50% supported them in Saskatchewan, while their fortunes suffered a blow in Manitoba and British Columbia as a result of the re-emergence of the NDP as a semi-viable political force.

[ArrowX]

I miss The Conservative Reform Alliance Party

[Big McLargehuge]

This thread makes me lol