Good Lord. If it's Rudy vs. Clinton in 2008....eh, wake me up in 2012. :/
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Com...5_3_05_JA.html
May 3, 2005
The Religious Right and Rudy
by John Avlon
In the mental chess game pundits and powerbrokers play in the run-up to 2008, one complicating factor has been accepted as conventional wisdom: Rudolph Giuliani, the leader of most Republican polls, is too centrist to be accepted by the religious right's rank and file.
That's why a comment by the founder of the Christian Coalition, the Reverend Pat Robertson, on ABC News's "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" this past Sunday should send shockwaves through the Republican Party establishment and may signal the beginning of a healthy realignment in American politics.
In response to a question about whether religious conservatives would split off from the Republican Party if a moderate like Mayor Giuliani were nominated for president, Rev. Robertson quickly said, "I don't think so. Rudy is a very good friend of mine, and he did a super job running the City of New York. And I think he'd make a good president. I like him a lot. Although he doesn't share all of my particular points of view on social issues, he's a very dedicated Catholic. And he's a great guy."
This character endorsement is an important green light to a possible presidential run that some social-conservative political operatives were overconfidently whispering was dead on arrival. It is also a generous and timely reinforcement of Ronald Reagan's principle of the "big tent" by someone associated with the far right of the party. With even tacit support and an established comfort level with leaders of the Christian Coalition, the broad popular support for a Giuliani presidential campaign that already exists among Republicans and independents could be unstoppable. He could be the first Republican candidate since Ronald Reagan to win both New York and California on the way to winning the White House.
Rev. Robertson's comments represent the result of Mr. Giuliani's personal reaching out to other Republicans in addition to the halo effect from his leadership after the attacks of September 11 and subsequent honor as Time magazine's Man of the Year. These factors have made him a valuable celebrity surrogate for Republican candidates across the country. Without ever backing off his core principles, Mr. Giuliani has been a tireless good soldier for the Republican Party in the last two election cycles, and contributed considerably on the ground to their gains in Congress and the Senate. In the process, he has created personal loyalties in unexpected places and proven that this former New York City mayor can play nationally.
This is evident in events like an upcoming fund-raiser for longtime Christian Coalition leader and influential Republican operative Ralph Reed in his campaign for lieutenant governor of Georgia, where Mr. Giuliani has been asked to serve on the host committee. Apparently, association with Mr. Giuliani is an electoral asset even to a statewide candidate in the Deep South. It is evident in comments like that of Senator Lott of Mississippi, who told the Hill newspaper last month, "I don't think any senator can win the nomination [in 2008]; if they get the nomination they won't be elected president."
These comments by Mr. Lott may not be music to the ears of some social conservatives who had been pinning their hopes on the possible candidacy of the Senate majority leader, William Frist. But then, Rev. Robertson did not give them much reason to celebrate either, saying with honesty and equanimity, "Bill is a wonderfully compassionate human being. He is humanitarian. He goes on medical missions. He's a delightful person. I just don't see him as a future president." He had a less live-and-let-live tone when asked about the centrist senator from Arizona, saying, "McCain I'd vote against under any circumstance."
Make no mistake: There are some folks on the far right who have been marshaling their forces to stop a centrist Republican from getting elected president. Rev. Robertson's comments about Mr. Giuliani must be making them howl.
There are reasons for this evolution - mutual respect and a will to win. As the Republican Party looks to the future, it's increasingly difficult to ignore presidential polls showing Senator Clinton beating Senator Frist or Senator Santorum, while losing decisively to Rudy Giuliani.
His celebrity looms large across party lines, with a national reputation for leadership forged in the defining adversity of our time. Upon closer examination, Mr. Giuliani's conservative record on crime, taxes, and the war on terror has rallied many party faithful to his camp, while his alleged liberalism on social issues has been intentionally overstated. He is in favor of gay rights but opposed to gay marriage; he is personally opposed to abortion but supports a woman's right to choose. These are mainstream positions - consistent with a belief in individual freedom - even if they fall outside the far right of the Republican Party or the far left of the Democratic Party.
Rev. Robertson's warm comments about Mr. Giuliani this Sunday send a powerful message to millions of religious conservatives not to judge their party's early front-runner on a narrow litmus test, but to instead look at the full record to gain a picture of the president he might make. Mr. Giuliani has been reaching out to his party, and now his party is beginning to return the favor as it looks for its strongest candidate in 2008.
John Avlon is a columnist for the New York Sun and the author
of Independent Nation.
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