Scenario!!! Scenario!!!

[Ronnie Raygun]

What realistic events would have to take place for Bush to lose this election?

[KevinTheOmnivore]

I think it'd have to be either pigs flying, or Ronnie Raygun posting on an I-Mockery forum again.........well, that does it.

[Ronnie Raygun]

I had to come back sooner or later.

Life has as been crazy.

[Jeanette X]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Raygun

What realistic events would have to take place for Bush to lose this election?

Hmm...that is a good question Ronnie. I'll have to brainstorm about it for a while. It would really have to be something ghastly to stop him now.

[Ronnie Raygun]

Yes it would.

[KevinTheOmnivore]

Ugh, this deterministic attitude is cute and all, but not realistic. Let's look at what Bush has going for him, and what holes could be exposed in it:

1. The economy

- This is the toughest one, but the economic upturn has been primarily a jobless one, and unless more people start seeing a direct benefit from all this happy talk about Bull markets, then it might not matter.

2. Defense and terrorism

- Well, we just triumphed over a country that had nothing to do with 9/11, and contrary to every chicken little rant Raygun once posted here, the "stockpiles" of WMD promised by this administration never turned up. The "45 minute threat" promised to us, and members of our Congress by this administration clearly wasn't possible. And now there's a chance that this administration couldn't even avoid lying about capturing Saddam Hussein. The Democratic candidate can exploit these consistent lies, as well as the body bag count coming home to small town, USA, and turn the "war on terrorism" back on him.

3. Medicare

- As I've already mentioned in another thread, the elderly demographic who actually instill fear in any candidate for office aren't benefiting from this new bill. A lot of elderly folks don't even understand the changes yet, and many have left the AARP in disgust when they did get it. People tend to vote consistently, and it can take YEARS for realignments and voting changes to go down. The Republican Party will need to show several more years of benefits for the elderly before they swing voters permanently. The Democrats will form around one candidate, the unions will fall in line, as will the AARP. Don't give the medicare vote to Bush just yet....

There's other stuff, but those were big ones that stuck out.....

[Ronnie Raygun]

I don't think the American people are going to buy any of that.

[KevinTheOmnivore]

And hopefully Karl Rove is just as naive as you are (we're probably not so lucky).

[The One and Only...]

I think you'll see some jobs opening up in the near future. It's the perfect time for small businesses to start up.

[Emu]

Why is that, exactly?

[The One and Only...]

Originally Posted by Emu

Why is that, exactly?

Low interest rates, combined with rising trends in stock prices and consumption, makes it easier and raises incentive for small entrepenuers to take loans to start up or expand their business, which creates jobs. Small businesses, rather than large businesses, are the real job creators in the market - this is why the Bush administration loosened taxes on the top 2% while largely ignoring the middle class. Most of the market's bull run is actually thanks to Mr. Greenspan, though; the effects of taxation on the economy is much more long-term and abstract.

Of course, this is actually a bad thing, because the market tends to act as a slippery slope and will necessarily force Greenspan to raise reserves and interest rates along with it, causing a recession... but I digress.

[AChimp]

You are such a weiner.

[mburbank]

1.) W. falling off the wagon.
2.) W. being forced to take one of the tests states require for Highschool graduation.
3.) W. being caught in bed with Grover Norquist.
4.) W. departing from prepared texts during a debate.
5.) More evidence that everything leading up to the war were deliberate lies.
6.) Evidence that W. has energy lobbysist write all the republican legislation.
7.) Everyone who voted against W. last time voting against him again and distrubeted fractionally differently.
8.) W. holding a child in front of him as a human shield against a pre-cognative assasins bullets.
9.) Dick Chenney's pact with Satan revealed.
10.) American soldiers continuing to die at the current rate with nothing more being achieved.
11.) W's Dad coming out against him.
12.) Our ally Pakistan letting nukes fall into the hands of terrorists
13.) North Korea turning out to have been worth paying attention to
14.) Our ally Saudi Arabia having escaped prosecution becuase the Bush family is on their payroll.
15.) If our 'recovery' continues to fail to generate jobs and W. presides over the most jobs lost since Hoover.
12-1,576.) etc, etc, etc.
1,578.) W. turning out to be exactly as invulnerable as his dad.
1,579.) Merry Cristmas Ronnie.

[Ronnie Raygun]

"1. The economy

- This is the toughest one, but the economic upturn has been primarily a jobless one, and unless more people start seeing a direct benefit from all this happy talk about Bull markets, then it might not matter."

First of all it hasn't been a jobless upturn. A proper study of any econmic upturn will reveal that unemployment is the last thing to improve. At this rate, by the time this election takes place, the much improved economy will hurt liberals and alike. My personal opinion is that at the rate the economy has already improved, it would help Bush if an election were held today.

"2. Defense and terrorism

- Well, we just triumphed over a country that had nothing to do with 9/11, and contrary to every chicken little rant Raygun once posted here, the "stockpiles" of WMD promised by this administration never turned up. The "45 minute threat" promised to us, and members of our Congress by this administration clearly wasn't possible. And now there's a chance that this administration couldn't even avoid lying about capturing Saddam Hussein. The Democratic candidate can exploit these consistent lies, as well as the body bag count coming home to small town, USA, and turn the "war on terrorism" back on him."

This just wishful thinking and nothing more. The bottom line is that we are clearly winning The War on Terror and Kadalfi's actions in Libya are just an example of that. For the first time in decades the Iraqi people are free from Saddam. The situation there is improving....schools are opening, there is a free press. Maybe the leftists here should take a look at what the free press of Iraq have to say about our actions there. WMD haven't been found as of yet? So what? If we find some of them tomorrow, what will you have to say about it? When we found them you would just say that we planted them there. .... and they will be found just like Usama will be found. If either one of those happen before Nov. you might as well forget it. Until then, I guess you'll have something to talk about....

"3. Medicare

- As I've already mentioned in another thread, the elderly demographic who actually instill fear in any candidate for office aren't benefiting from this new bill. A lot of elderly folks don't even understand the changes yet, and many have left the AARP in disgust when they did get it. People tend to vote consistently, and it can take YEARS for realignments and voting changes to go down. The Republican Party will need to show several more years of benefits for the elderly before they swing voters permanently. The Democrats will form around one candidate, the unions will fall in line, as will the AARP. Don't give the medicare vote to Bush just yet...."

We have enough of the medicare vote right now to win the election...The fact is, I hate this new bill and it's one of the reasons I think Bush's domestic policy is mostly garbage. The fact is, this bill bought votes and it works in his favor. Even if it didn't, it wouldn't much matter.....

...and Kevin...just stop the insults. There isn't any reason for it.

[KevinTheOmnivore]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Raygun

..and Kevin...just stop the insults. There isn't any reason for it.

You really need to reflect upon how overly simplistic and condescending you are before you make such a request, got it? I called you naive. You ARE naive, at least in the context of which we are speaking. Don't cry about it, we can still be friends, okay sweety????

I'll reply later when I have more time, but in the meantime Ronnie, be like Journey and don't stop believing, ok???

[The One and Only...]

Yeah Kevin, he's so delusional to think that Bush is going to win the race...

[KevinTheOmnivore]

Originally Posted by The One and Only...

Yeah Kevin, he's so delusional to think that Bush is going to win the race...

I never implied that he was. Stop being annoying.

[Ronnie Raygun]

I find it hard to believe that Kevin actually believes that Dean or anyone else might have a chance against Bush. I just think it's going to take something drastic to cause Bush to lose.

"You really need to reflect upon how overly simplistic and condescending you are before you make such a request, got it?"

I'm not condescending......relax and stop being so defensive.

[The One and Only...]

The hilarious thing is that Democrats are so deep in their hole that they have to talk about cover-ups and conspiracy theories. Wasn't it senator Kennedy that said the Saddam capture was timed? I remember hearing Dean say something foolish as well...

[mburbank]

Wasn't it Bush senior who gave Kennedy an award this year for political heroism?


"we are clearly winning The War on Terror"
I'm glad you're back. I can once again offer you a chance to say who you think is right. You, or Rummy, who said we have no yardstick by which to measure our progress in the 'war' on terror. I think you can't be 'clearly winning' a contest you have no way of defining. Libya's gesture, a good thing no matter what, is a gesture. Sadaam made the same gesture. Iran is making a similr gesture. In some cases these gestures are hailed as major victories and in some cases we invade looking for things we never find. We don't know who the terrorist are, we don't know where they are, we don't know what their organization is, we don't know what they have. We can and do attack their funding sources. We can and do catch and arrest who we can. We can and do topple dictators. But I think Rummy was uncharacteristically honest in saying that we don't know how we're doing. "Clearly Winning", like "Mission accopmplished" and "Bring 'em on" is better bumper sticker materia then policy. But we were only talking about electability, anyway.

I think W. will probably win. But I also think he is very vulnerable.

[Ronnie Raygun]

I pretty much agree.

I see where you are coming from. In the eyes of some I can see how maybe enough hasn't been accomplished but I don't see how one could deny the progress we've made.

My opinion is that progress equates to "winning". I don't see how you could say terrorists have made progress. They haven't been very successful since 9/11.

[The One and Only...]

Originally Posted by mburbank

Wasn't it Bush senior who gave Kennedy an award this year for political heroism?

Which isn't relevant to the point, but it's nice to see you actually replied to one of my comments.

I think W. will probably win. But I also think he is very vulnerable.

I don't think so. Not when mainstream Dems are pulling out conspiracy theories.

[mburbank]

It's not so much not having accomplished much as having no real way of telling how much we've accomplished, what's efective, what isn't and what is distraction, waste and endangerment. I'm not suggesting you CAN measure a stateless threat, I'm just suggesting honesty as opposed to sloganeering.

Here are few things I personally think Al Quaeda has accomplished since 9/11.

The conversion of Iraq, a deeply corrupt and possibly dangerous but secular state into a chaotic quagmire ideal for terrorists. Tieing a large portion of the US military to Iraq for the forseeable future. Making us choose between keeping control of Iraq and letting it fall to Shiite extremists.

The US have for the most part left Saudi Arabia, one of Al Quaeda's number one goals. While I'm all in favor of our leaving, it was high on their priority list.

The destabalization of Pakistan. This is the one that worries me the most. There have been three attempts on Mushariff's life in the last month. Al Quaeda is active in Pakistan and has many supporters. If Mushariff is killed (and I think it's quite possible) the resulting free for all will give Al Quaeda a shot at something they never had in Pakistan or Iraq, if the were ever involved there which I doubt. Nuclear weapons.

Again, I'm not playing what would I have done. I have no idea (although I would not have invaded Iraq any more the Bush senior). The question was How succesful have the terrorist been since 9/11. I think they've done very well at making us do the labor for them.